Brian Ortega and Aljamain Sterling meet in the co-main event of UFC Fight Night 257 at Mercedes-Benz Arena in Shanghai. Check out this quick breakdown of the matchup from MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom.

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Brian Ortega vs. Aljamain Sterling UFC Shanghai preview

Originally scheduled as five-round featherweight affair, Ortega and Sterling now will compete at a 153-pound catchweight following reports of Ortega struggling to cut weight. Ortega is far removed from the period of his career in which he started off 14-0. Since 2018, Ortega is 2-4, and he’s coming off a unanimous decision loss to Diego Lopes last September at Noche UFC. Sterling, a former UFC bantamweight champion, is 1-2 in his past three bouts. That includes losing his 135-pound title to Sean O’Malley, defeating Calvin Kattar in his move to featherweight, and most recently dropping a unanimous decision to Movsar Evloev.

Brian Ortega vs. Aljamain Sterling UFC Shanghai expert pick, prediction

The co-main event in Shanghai features a five-round affair between Brian Ortega and Aljamain Sterling that was shifted to a lightweight bout at the eleventh hour.

This fight was initially slated to happen at featherweight, but weight cut complications on the Ortega side of the equation forced this fight to continue a division up.

I’ve long been having doubts about where Ortega is at this point in his career (especially at 145 pounds), and seeing him show up overweight and looking like a zombie on the scales only reaffirms my fears.

I was already picking Sterling for his superior wrestling and movement, but was admittedly worried about him in the latter frames of the fight. However, after what I witnessed at the weigh-ins, I suspect that Sterling will be in better shape come the championship rounds.

I’ll still officially pick Sterling to win by decision, but don’t be surprised if the former bantamweight champion can force a finish late.

Brian Ortega vs. Aljamain Sterling UFC Shanghai odds

The oddsmakers and the public favor the former champ, listing Sterling (-375) and Ortega (+300) via FanDuel.

Brian Ortega vs. Aljamain Sterling UFC Shanghai start time, how to watch

As the co-main event, Ortega and Sterling are expected to walk to the cage at approximately 7:45 a.m. ET. The fight streams live on ESPN+.

This article originally appeared on MMA Junkie: UFC Shanghai: Ortega vs. Sterling prediction, pick, start time

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