UFC 322 preview: 6 burning questions for Saturday's Islam Makhachev vs. Jack Della Maddalena fight card
Big fights this weekend at Madison Square Garden! Big ideas, too. Not only is Islam Makhachev making the leap to welterweight to challenge UFC welterweight champion Jack Della Maddalena, but Zhang Weili has the same idea as she bounces up from strawweight to meet flyweight champ Valentina Shevchenko. Both of those fights are microcosms of the times.
Many years ago we dreamed of situations like this, of seeing Georges St-Pierre move up to face Anderson Silva, or Silva moving up to fight Jon Jones, or BJ Penn moving up to meet St-Pierre. (Actually, we saw that last one — it kind of sucked.)
UFC 322 has a lot going on, not just in the title fights but down the board. There’s a welterweight smorgasbord in New York, too, with many of the top 170-pound contenders involved. We know there are burning questions. It just so happens we have the answers.
1. It’s a tradition like no other, and it seems lots of people are doing it again — are we sleeping on Jack Della Maddalena?
Petesy: Yes, we are, Chuck. It’s a rite of passage for a newly crowned king of any weight class, and "JDM" should be proud to have received such a distinguished honor. Seriously though, I think everyone really likes the Australian, the way he fights and how he carries himself. The only problem is, he’s fighting the heir to Khabib Nurmagomedov’s throne, the continuation of Father’s Plan, and not for nothing, arguably the best pound-for-pound fighter on the planet.
I’m not completely putting this beyond Don Giacomo. Honestly, him winning might be the best thing for everyone. There should be a smattering of new welterweight contenders born in the next fortnight and who among us would be disappointed if he sent Islam Makhachev back down to 155 pounds for blockbuster meeting with Ilia Topuria?
Not this guy.
Chuck: It’s funny, we spend a lot of time talking about which guys have “it,” as in charisma and panache to go along with elite fighting skills. We would never accuse Islam Makhachev of having such magnetism. You laid out why he is a central attraction, and it’s to do with fighter heritage and lore more than personality. He was labeled Khabib 2.0 early, thus attracting his audience. He has delivered through his reign at lightweight, which has given him status as a pound-for-pound king. And he is moving up, to distinguish himself from all predecessors.
Yet you say hello to him, and the whole thing crumbles. (OK, OK, he’s not that bad. But he doesn’t have Khabib’s power on the microphone.)
All of this is to say he is a brass-tacks champion, and that’s OK, but you’d think there’d be a big segment of the public that would want to see him lose. I don’t sleep on Jack Della here. I think he carries a nice chip on his shoulder for geeing like the challenger in his first title defense, and I think he knows he gets a good exchange rate in performance when he’s a little peeved.
2. Come Sunday morning, which headline will it be: “Makhachev is the new welterweight champion,” or “JDM sends Makhachev back to lightweight with his tail between his legs?”
Chuck: You know, when they got together for the first time on Tuesday on the Edge sky deck — which is the highest sky deck in the Western Hemisphere, if you didn’t know that, Petesy — Makhachev looked pretty similar in size to "JDM." He’s not as small as some people are imagining him to be, and nor do I think size will be a major factor come Saturday.
If we truly believe in the hypothetical “pound-for-pound” jazz we profess to in our rankings, this should be Makhachev's fight. He is just a dog when it comes to pressure, and if he can get the fight to the ground, we know how merciless he is (and how deadly with the submissions). I can see him sapping the will out of "JDM" one round at a time, so I will go with the former as to which headline will appear. Della Maddalena will make it a fight, but I think Makhachev gets the job done.
Petesy: I didn’t know it took place at the Edge sky deck. In fact, due to the faceoffs taking place in almost complete darkness, it was hard to tell if there were any fighters there at all by the time Valentina Shevchenko and Zhang Weili stood toe-to-toe, so thank you for that timely reminder, sir.
Speaking of dizzying heights, that’s something Della Maddalena will be dealing with Saturday night at MSG. Opportunities don’t get much bigger than this, and while the writer in me would love the story, I just feel like Makhachev is primed for the stage and the moment. I agree that "JDM" will make this a difficult night’s work. I’m looking forward to seeing if he can implement that Craig Jones anti-Dagestan takedown defense we saw during Alexander Volkanovski's first lightweight title contest against Makhachev, but the smart money this weekend is on Makhachev.
3. A multiple choice: With the welterweight grand prix in play, who has the inside track at the next title shot? A) Sean Brady, B) Michael Morales, C) Leon Edwards, D) Carlos Prates or E) None of the above?
Petesy: I really like this because any reasonable person would produce this list of potential contenders in response to this question, but not Makhachev.
No, Chuck. When asked who he would like for his first title defense should he claim welterweight gold on Saturday, Makhachev said, “Kamaru Usman.” Yes, that’s right. We’ve spent weeks talking about how cool this whole month will be as it will dictate the future of the welterweight division, only for the man favored to be champion Sunday morning to take us right back to 2022.
Honestly, I think the winner of Sean Brady vs. Michael Morales has the best chance of looking really good and getting the job done due to the style matchup. Morales is a knockout artist, he’s huge for the division and he has that wild youthful exuberance of a fighter who has yet to taste defeat. Brady, on the other hand, is a bulldozer. He could completely suffocate the young gun and use his stellar grappling ability to make a statement. I see Leon Edwards and Carlos Prates being more of a technical striking bout, something similar to what we saw between Ian Machado Garry and the cigarette-smoking striker.
Machado Garry will be hoping that all the welterweight clashes are mundane of course, giving him or Belal Muhammad the opportunity to claim the title shot next week at UFC Qatar.
Chuck: I always feel bad for Leon Edwards (and Belal Muhammad, for that matter). In title discussions, he’s kind of the Debbie Downer of the speculation. It’s not that he isn’t fun to watch fight, but he’s finished just four guys in 19 UFC bouts. Granted, one of those knockouts was the Head-Shot-Dead Hail Mary KO of Usman, which makes up for any lost ground. But we tend to settle into his skill set.
I don’t see him emerging in the division he recently ran, but Carlos Prates could. If he goes out there and dusts Edwards, that would be one hell of a statement, especially if the fight you mentioned between Brady and Morales somehow does nothing for the imagination. I think Prates is a dark horse to steal the show come Saturday night, and that post-fight cigarette will be the sweetest thing he’ll taste in the Big Apple.
4. Does the winner of Valentina Shevchenko and Zhang Weili have a case for being the GOAT in women’s MMA?
Chuck: It’s always in play when two (mostly) dominant champions get together to fight, this talk of famous farmyard animals. Valentina Shevchenko has been sensational for so long that you forget sometimes. It is true that she lost those fights to Amanda Nunes — the consensus women’s GOAT currently — and got submitted by Alexa Grasso. But she was fighting up a weight class against Nunes and she more than avenged the Grasso loss through the subsequent fights in the trilogy.
Nunes lost to Alexis Davis, for heaven’s sakes, as well as Sarah D’Alelio, Cat Zingano and Julianna Pena. So it’s not like she was infallible. Yet I will say that Nunes’ beating Cris Cyborg at 145 pounds is the tiebreaker in most arguments.
As for Zhang Weili, I think she’s without a doubt the best pound-for-pound women’s fighter going right now, and a win only further solidifies that. I am not sure I’d anoint her the women’s GOAT if she beats Shevchenko for a second title. She will have work to do to get there.
Petesy: Wow, so many great fighters named in that passage, Chuck. All but one. Not a single mention of Ronda Rousey, verifying her balanced statement about how MMA media spectacularly turned on her as soon as she lost. To think you would do such a thing after writing an amazing reflection on the 10-year anniversary of her meeting with Holly Holm makes it even worse. You’re a disgrace, Mindenhall!
Jokes aside, I had not considered the status of most sacred of farm animal being up for grabs in this one, but you make a fine pitch for it. It’s interesting that Shevchenko finds herself in the same situation as "JDM." People are doubting her ability despite her being one of the greatest female fighters ever. We see a Chinese buzzsaw headed her way and fear the worst, but that will only make victory even more spectacular should she get her hand raised Saturday.
I agree with you that this fight could produce a GOAT candidate, especially in the case of Zhang Weili given she is moving up a weight class.
5. Which fight are you most looking forward to otherwise on UFC 322?
Petesy: For me, it’s Morales vs. Brady. I love how both guys go about their business, and they do it in completely different ways. Brady should already be fighting for the title, and had the lightweight champion not suddenly discovered creatine, he probably would be. Morales’ ascent has been meteoric and he seems to have what Firas Zahabi once called "The Touch of Death" in his right hand.
I truly believe this bout will produce the next welterweight contender, so that’s why I’m really excited about it. Excitement! Remember that? Sometimes I forget this fluttering feeling in my stomach, but then again, doesn’t every fight fan after two weeks at the UFC APEX?
Chuck: The 26-year-old Morales is like a secret the UFC has kept in its Vegas lair (the APEX), so this fight does have the feel of a coming out party. If he goes in there and beats Brady the way he did Gilbert Burns in his first main event a few months back, we’ll be muttering “phenom” as we cough.
You know what might be the most compelling fight that’s not on the pay-per-view? It’s Bo Nickal against Rodolfo Vieira. Two fighters with elite combat scaffolding who come at it from different lenses — Nickal the wrestler, Vieira the submission grappler. Once this fight hits the ground, it could be a fun little thrill ride. Nickal has a lot of pressure coming off that loss to Reinier de Ridder, because if he has a repeat dud … well, the shine comes off one of the UFC’s great blue-chip prospects.
Yet if he picks up where he left off against guys like Cody Brundage and Val “Woodwork” Woodburn? The party starts up again.
Bonus question: With this being the second to last UFC pay-per-view ever, is this the best one of the year?
Chuck: On paper, it’s close. The fact that you have not one but two champions from other divisions making the leap to win second titles is enough to give this card distinction, yet the idea of Sean Brady fighting Michael Morales … and Leon Edwards fighting Carlos Prates … I mean, these are big fights!
There are so many big swings of fate ahead on Saturday night.
Yet we’ll see if it lives up to UFC 317. That was a good one. Ilia Topuria took such a massive step into the stratosphere of stardom by beating Charles Oliveira in that main event, Alexandre Pantoja crushed Kai Kara-France to flex that inner-dog, and Joshua Van went out and put on a FOTY candidate with Brandon Royval … that was a wicked card, Petesy. Maybe not as good on paper heading in, but a tough one to beat in how it played out.
Petesy: You’re right about UFC 317, it was magic. It stood out in a year that started off poorly in terms of pay-per-view offerings.
Chael Sonnen appeared on The Ariel Helwani Show earlier this week and said he didn’t feel the buzz for UFC 322 despite being in New York for a number of days. I think that’s what I like most about it. This is a hardcore fan’s card. It doesn’t have the Conor McGregor or GSP factor we saw in UFC’s first visits to The Big Apple, but every fight on the main card is a banger. Add to that an undercard with Bo Nickel and two undefeated knockout artists, Malcolm Wellmaker and Baisangur Susurkaev, and you have yourself a fantastic night in front of the box.
I’m buzzing for it!
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