MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC 323’s main event rematch between Merab Dvalishvili and Petr Yan.

Merab Dvalishvili UFC 323 preview

Staple info:

• Record: 21-4 MMA, 14-2 UFC
• Height: 5’6″ Age: 34 Weight: 135 lbs. Reach: 68″
• Last fight: Decision win over Cory Sandhagen (Oct. 4, 2025)
• Camp: Syndicate MMA/Serra-Longo (Las Vegas)
• Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
• Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:

• + UFC bantamweight champion
• + Multiple sambo championships
• + Judo black belt
• + Amateur MMA accolades
• + 3 KO victories
• + 2 submission wins
• + 1 first-round finish
• + Relentless pace and pressure
• + Steadily improved striking technique
• ^ Variates looks and levels
• + Strong inside the clinch
• ^ Works well from bodylock
• + Solid offensive wrestling
• ^ Chains attacks and scrambles well
• + Aggressive ground striker
• ^ Operates well in transition
• +/- 1-0 in career rematches

Petr Yan UFC 323 preview

Staple info:

• Record: 11-4 MMA, 11-4 UFC
• Height: 5’7″ Age: 32 Weight: 155 lbs. Reach: 67″
• Last fight: Decision win over Marcus McGhee (July 26, 2025)
• Camp: Tiger Muay Thai/Archangel Michael Club (Russia)
• Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/muay Thai
• Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:

• + Former UFC bantamweight champion
• + ACB bantamweight title
• + Master of sports in boxing
• + 7 KO victories
• + 1 submission win
• + 3 first-round finishes
• + KO Power
• + Building pace and pressure
• + Excellent footwork
• ^ Shifts stances, takes angles
• + Accurate left hand
• ^ Jabs, hooks and crosses
• + Strong inside of the clinch
• ^ Defense, trips, strikes off the breaks
• + Solid wrestling ability
• ^ Scrambles well
• +/- 1-1 in career rematches

Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan 2 point of interest: Striking the second time around

The main event of UFC 323 features yet another rematch from the matchmakers, as Merab Dvalishvili defends his bantamweight belt against Petr Yan.

Their first fight, which took place over two years ago, was a fairly one-sided shutout, courtesy of Dvalishvili’s relentless pace and pressure.

In Yan’s defense, the Russian fighter, who was reportedly dealing with hand issues going into the contest, appeared much less active with his right hand and gripping presence, in general. That said, there’s no denying that the unwavering offense from Dvalishvili helped keep the proverbial ball firmly in his hands for 25 minutes.

Moreover, Dvalishvili has remained active and improving since their initial meeting in Las Vegas.

Although Dvalishvili’s background is in judo and sambo, the Georgian fighter has been steadily shoring up his striking under the care of Ray Longo and Syndicate MMA coach John Wood. Not only has Dvalishvili cleaned up on his general technique, but the 34-year-old has also been incorporating more things like feints to play off of.

Dvalishvili appears to have an impeccable sense of timing, seemingly utilizing his own awkward rhythms and bounce steps to throw off his opposition. Whether he’s connecting punches to takedowns or mixing in the occasional spinning assault, Dvalishvili can be a difficult character to get a beat on.

Dvalishvili may stage attacks a little bit too much off the back foot for my liking, but the Serra-Longo product has shown that he’s not afraid to get dirty when he needs to by pressuring – something that I suspect would serve him well here.

Still, for however good Dvalishvili may be, his striking technique and defense are not exactly bulletproof, so he’ll need to be on his best behavior against a fighter who can counter like Yan.

A ferocious competitor, Yan implements a counter-heavy approach that is both analyst and fan-friendly, given how aggressively he works his opposition toward the fence. Whether Yan is operating from orthodox or southpaw, the 32-year-old phenom often conducts traffic with his left hand, wielding a bevy of accurate weapons from that side.

From straight shots down the center that range from jabs to crosses to sneaky hooks and uppercuts off the lead side, Yan can pretty much do it all from boxing range. The Tiger Muay Thai product will also mix in other things like kicks, knees and elbows into his repertoire – though he seems to smartly save that shot selection for his assaults off of the breaks.

Yan does a deceptively good job on the defensive end, subtly rolling with oncoming shots while keeping his eyes on his opponent with returns in mind. Nevertheless, shifting aggression – no matter who is at the steering wheel – tends to be a ripe recipe in regard to opportunistic counters and level changes alike.

Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan 2 point of interest: Wrestler’s wrath

Considering the crux of Dvalishvili’s game, winning the wrestling will be paramount for both parties this weekend.

Although the scorecards of their first fight and the recency bias alike have many forgetting the skills and successes of Yan, the Russian actually did a more than decent job defending the majority of Dvalishvili’s takedown attempts (especially if the former champ was, in fact, one-handed that night).

Akin to fighters like Dvalishvili, Yan’s grappling game also incorporates a lot of sambo and judo influence regarding both his wrestling and submission sensibilities. Whether Yan is hitting disruptive foot sweeps or attacking submissions off transitions, he seldom seems lost, offering answers that involve subtle but smart wrist controls.

Despite being bested by Dvalishvili and his teammate Aljamain Sterling, Yan has also shown tools to help shut down similarly styled grapplers in the past who shared similar offensive threats.

In his first fight against Magomed Magomedov, for example, Yan had to constantly shake a sambo champion off of his back due to his propensity to tripod to his base in scrambles. In their rematch, however, Yan was able to make some key adjustments that involved a stronger emphasis on attaching whizzers as momentum stoppers – which is a smart adjustment for a fighter who has quick hip triggers and can shift backward when he needs to.

Since Yan’s battles with Magomedov, the former UFC champion still inherently tripods in scrambling scenarios but is smart about swimming his arms and re-wrestling from said positions.

Nevertheless, despite Yan’s knack for turning defense into offense, he will still be playing with fire anytime he allows someone like Dvalishvili onto his hips. When it comes to offensive grappling, Yan will also still need to mind giving his head on level-changing shots given Dvalishvili’s steadily growing front-choke presence.

Dvalishvili may not be a game-over-level submission artist, but the sitting champ can make anyone’s life hell via mat returns from a bodylock.

A flexible takedown artist and grappler, Dvalishvili has many tools at his disposal. Although he traditionally favors single-leg snatches (like a lot of sambo-based practitioners we’ve seen in the octagon), the Syndicate MMA standout has incorporated a lot more double-legs since training stateside.

From hitting shots in the open to completing doubles against the fence, Dvalishvili can be a difficult customer to dissuade. And when Dvalishvili does get his man down, he’s not shy about immediately looking to land strikes in transition.

Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan odds

The oddsmakers and the public are heavily favoring the sitting champion, listing Dvalishvili -500 and Yan +340 via FanDuel.

Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan 2 prediction, pick

Although I don’t disagree with Dvalishvili being favored this time around, a 5-1 spread feels a bit insulting given the level of fighting that both parties bring to the table.

Dvalishvili is undeniably a top pound-for-pound talent with his resume and is an incredibly easy fighter to root for. However, if I’m being honest, it feels like the narrative on his dominance has been getting a bit overinflated and out of hand regarding the recollection of just how competitive some of his fights have been.

But even if you agree with the opinion that fighters like Jose Aldo and Umar Nurmagomedov arguably won their fights with Dvalishvili, it’s a tough sell to everyone, from the casual fans to the judges who are cageside, given to the overall positive optics that “The Machine” produces. Moreover, Dvalishvili has displayed improvements in both his striking and submission games since said fights, making the Georgian’s narrative of dominance justifiably stronger in the process.

Still, akin to my breakdown and thoughts on the recent series with Alex Pereira and Magomed Ankalaev, I can’t help but suspect that Yan – the fighter whom I initially picked to win – was dealing with a legitimate handicap in their first affair that quite possibly cut us a bit short as far as an honest fight goes (and that’s not to take anything away from Dvalishvili, who had one of the best performances of his career).

However, at risk of pissing off the legions of people who fail to realize that two things on a matter can simultaneously be true, there are undeniable changes to Yan’s trends in that first fight with Dvalishvili, in particular.

Aside from the fact that you only need one hand to count the quality right hands Yan attempted all fight, it was clear that the stance-switching offensive phenom was mainly limited to an orthodox stance, where the Russian threw way more leg kicks since he was limited on boxing weapons – particularly from his favored southpaw stance.

This lack of a lead or rear-hand presence also forced Yan to work a lot more from a high guard as opposed to his long guard (where a primary amount of his power shots our set up from). Yan’s high guard also served as an invitation of sorts to his hips, which can be stylistic nightmare fuel when facing a fighter like Dvalishvili.

I also noticed a major lack of Yan’s usual hand-fighting in their first fight, which made the fact that he defended and scrambled out of so many takedowns really impressive when you think about it (as this only adds to the case that Yan was dealing with a hand injury on the night).

So, with no disrespect meant toward Dvalishvili and his improvements, I can’t help but wonder how off base the current odds and narrative could be if we get a healthy Yan on fight night. Furthermore, Yan has also appeared to be making his own improvements since the first fight, showing solid upgrades in everything from his kicks to his collar-tie turns/returns.

Add in the fact that left-sided strikes and body kicks (Yan’s most damaging strikes) remain Dvalishvili’s common culprit, and I believe that the challenger is much livelier than the current odds indicate. It’s an unpopular pick that I’ll likely get little credit for if I’m right, but I’ll take a flier on the fighter I picked the first time around to win. And though I think that Yan is capable of earning a decision despite their polar opposite history with judges, I’ll officially pick “No Mercy” to hurt Dvalishvili and force a stoppage via strikes in the middle rounds.

Prediction: Yan inside the distance

Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan 2 start time, how to watch

As the main event, Dvalishvili and Yan are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 12:15 a.m. ET. The fight airs on pay-per-view via ESPN+.

This article originally appeared on MMA Junkie: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan 2 pick, odds, time: UFC 323