The 2026 Australian Open is here, and the draw promises another thrilling fortnight. It’s a steep climb for some and a smoother ride for others. Novak Djokovic returns to Melbourne chasing a record 25th Grand Slam, still seeking his first major since 2023 after four straight semifinal exits at majors in 2025 and the threat of the “New Two”: Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner. Last year, a hamstring injury ended his AO run at the semis. Now he’s healthy, hungry, and ready to fight again. But who stands in his way this time?

The draw dropped on Thursday, instantly setting the tone for Djokovic’s latest Melbourne title chase. First up, he’ll face Pedro Martinez, a matchup heavily tilted in the Serb’s favor. Martinez’s limited hard-court record and lack of past meetings with the Serb make it a steep climb. It’s a first-time clash, and Nole’s experience on Rod Laver Arena should make all the difference.

If Novak Djokovic cruises through round one, his second-round opponent will be either Terence Atmane or a qualifier or lucky loser. Atmane, who reached the semifinals at the 2025 Canadian Open, where he faced Sinner, has been making noise on hard courts. But as sharp as the Frenchman is, nothing beats Djokovic’s poise under the Melbourne lights. The challenge is real, but so is Nole’s muscle memory on this court.

The real test could come early in the third round. Roberto Bautista Agut looms as a seasoned battler, with a 9-3 H2H in Novak Djokovic’s favor. Their Cincinnati 2020 duel reminded everyone how tough Bautista Agut can be when absorbing pace and dragging points deep into rallies. Still, in best-of-five matches, Novak’s grit usually shines brightest.

If not Bautista Agut, then watch for Botic van de Zandschulp or Brandon Nakashima to test him. Both have enough firepower to strike in bursts. Van de Zandschulp shares a 1-1 record with Novak, while Nakashima’s serve-forehand combo suits Melbourne’s quick surface. But in this arena, Djokovic rarely falters over five sets. He knows how to stretch time and squeeze pressure.

By the fourth round, things get spicier. Jakub Mensik, the teenager who stunned Djokovic in the 2025 Miami Open final, could reappear. Then there’s Griekspoor’s relentless hitting, or perhaps Hubert Hurkacz, the most likely threat. Novak Djokovic leads Hurkacz 8-0, yet their recent hard-court battles, including a nail-biting win in Geneva, went the distance. Hubi can serve through storms, but Nole has a way of finding the eye of it.

The quarterfinals could deliver a star-packed lineup: Taylor Fritz, Lorenzo Musetti, or Jiri Lehecka. Nole’s perfect 11-0 record versus Fritz, highlighted by that gritty four-set win at the 2025 US Open, says plenty. He reads Fritz’s patterns like a book. Musetti once cracked the code in Monte Carlo, but Nole still owns their rivalry 9–1. Against Lehecka’s explosive pace? Impressive, yes, but Nole hasn’t let him close the gap in four tries since 2023.

Then comes the semifinal storm, where Jannik Sinner, Ben Shelton, or Casper Ruud could await, with Sinner now the marquee obstacle. Their rivalry sits at 6-4 in the Italian’s favor in recent meetings, with Sinner winning three of their last four, including that landmark 2024 Australian Open semifinal. Then there’s also Shelton’s big lefty serve and Ruud’s steady game, and the one time he topped Nole at the 2024 Roland Garros quarters, which rounds out as a possible upcoming test.

And if he reaches the finish line, the showdown could be epic. Carlos Alcaraz headlines the possible final cast, flanked by Alexander Zverev, Felix Auger-Aliassime, or Alex de Minaur. Djokovic leads Alcaraz 5-3, spotless on hard courts, while his 9-5 edge over Zverev reflects years of clutch control at majors and the ATP Finals. Lastly, against Auger-Aliassime and home favorite de Minaur, Nole’s precision could rule in the end.

It’s shaping up as an electric battle for the crown at Rod Laver Arena. But will that be the case this time? Only time will tell. Nole took the necessary steps to avoid straining himself before the Slam, by sitting out of warmup events. However, he was seen struggling during practice.

Could Novak Djokovic’s chances at the Australian Open be in trouble?

On January 14, Djokovic’s day took an unexpected turn. After wrapping up a lively first hit with world No. 19 Jiri Lehecka, his fourth-round opponent from last year, he headed back out for more work. Around 5 p.m., he stepped onto Court 10 for a second practice session. That’s when the mood shifted.

The session barely lasted 12 minutes and immediately caught attention for all the wrong reasons. Novak Djokovic spent most of that brief time receiving treatment from his trainer, who worked hard on his neck. Knuckles and even a thumb were pressed deep into the muscle. It looked uncomfortable and possibly painful, though the Serb showed little reaction. Still, it left some uneasy about his fitness heading into the Australian Open.

According to former Wimbledon champion Pat Cash, that may depend more on circumstances than on Djokovic’s brilliance. Speaking to Tennis 365, Cash said the Serbian great would likely need both Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner to falter, admitting he doesn’t see Nole defeating them back-to-back in five-set marathons.

“He needs two of them to fall over, that’s the reality of it,” Cash said while serving as an ambassador at the Bank of China Hong Kong Open.

“It’s a fine balance at the end of your career to find where you are training hard enough to be fit enough to last two, even three, five-set matches, but not pushing it too far,” he explained. “So training hard enough to be able to last that, training too hard enough that you don’t get injured.”

For now, it’s a waiting game. The Australian Open begins Sunday, January 18, and Djokovic’s readiness remains a mystery. Will he rise again to claim that elusive 25th major title? What do you think? Tell us in the comments below!

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