With roughly two months before NBA teams report to training camp and roughly three before the 2025-26 NBA season tips off, LeBron James' future with the Los Angeles Lakers is going to be a frequent topic of discussion among media and fans.

In his latest column, NBA reporter Marc Stein outlined many of the key points that will influence James' decision over the next nine months — and past that, if the Lakers contend for an NBA championship. But the process may come down to one factor.

"It all really depends on how this coming season goes," one of Stein's sources said.  

James continued to play at a high level, averaging 24.4 points, 7.8 rebounds and 8.2 assists per game while shooting 38% on 3-pointers. And the Lakers finished last season tied for third in the Western Conference at 50-32. But they were 18 games behind the eventual NBA champion Oklahoma City Thunder. Losing their first-round playoff series to the Minnesota Timberwolves in five games also made it apparent how far they are from winning an NBA title.

President of basketball operations Rob Pelinka added center Deandre Ayton and forward Jake LaRavia, and re-signed center Jaxson Hayes. But will that be enough with James and Luka Dončić to contend in an extremely competitive Western Conference? 

James is largely responsible for creating these questions by picking up his $ 52.6 million player option for the upcoming season and not negotiating a longer-term deal with the Lakers. His agent, Rich Paul, also stoked speculation by issuing a statement to ESPN that said "LeBron wants to compete for a championship" and "values a realistic chance of winning it all." 

The statement also acknowledged that the Lakers were preparing for a future beyond James, which will be built around Dončić. 

"We understand the difficulty in winning now while preparing for the future," Paul said. "We do want to evaluate what's best for LeBron at this stage in his life and career. He wants to make every season he has left count, and the Lakers understand that, are supportive and want what's best for him."

If it becomes clear that the Lakers won't contend for an NBA title, a trade could be in play. Stein highlights the Dallas Mavericks as a possible destination. Previous reporting says that Dallas would only be interested in adding James if he was bought out from his 2025-26 contract. Would that change halfway through the season if the Mavs felt they were in the championship hunt?

The same likely applies to the Golden State Warriors, New York Knicks and even the Cleveland Cavaliers.

However, if James wants to keep playing, not just in pursuit of a fifth NBA championship but playing 24 or 25 seasons, or being the oldest player to play in the league at 46 years or older, then each of those teams is a possible next stop for him. What Stein's reporting increasingly indicates is that it wouldn't happen with the Lakers.

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