Published On: Fri, Mar 6th, 2026

UFC 326 predictions: Max Holloway or Charles Oliveria, who takes home the BMF belt?

Entertainment is guaranteed whenever the BMF title is on the line. With the UFC back inside Las Vegas' T-Mobile Arena on Saturday, March 7, Max Holloway aims to score a second successful defense of his ceremonial belt when he puts it up for grabs in a rematch with lightweight royalty, Charles Oliveira.

Holloway and Oliveira's first fight in 2015 ended with one of the more bizarre scenes of the UFC's modern era. An apparent esophagus injury halted the action before it really began, earning Holloway a victory just 99 seconds into the bout. Now, more than a decade later, both men are bona fide future Hall of Famers in every sense.

Outside of the main event, UFC 326's only fight with real immediate stakes is the co-main event, as middleweight contenders Caio Borralho and Reinier de Ridder both seek rebound wins after tough losses. Their fight is a compelling stylistic duel, but overall UFC 326 is wildly light for a traditional UFC numbered event. That being said, Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 is still enough of a certified banger to propel the card above what it would be rated otherwise.

👑 UFC 326 lineup Crown grade: C-. 👑

Betting odds via BetMGM.

(Hassan Ahmad, Yahoo Sports)
Can Al-Shatti dig himself out of the depths of the basement? (Hassan Ahmad, Yahoo Sports)

NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA - JULY 19: Max Holloway of the United States (R) kicks Dustin Poirier of the United States during their lightweight bout during UFC 318: Holloway vs Poirier 3 at the Smoothie King Center on July 19, 2025 in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Photo by Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images)
Say what you will about the BMF title, the matchups delivered over the years have been fitting of the label.
Jonathan Bachman via Getty Images

A clean sweep of predictions for Holloway from our Uncrowned team admittedly shocked me. This fight is very tough to pick, and should be competitively chaotic for as long as it lasts.

I'm sticking with my Holloway pick — but for one reason only, and we'll get to that here in a moment.

If you're still questioning whether or not the "Blessed" BMF is a real lightweight or not, stop it. Those concerns should've died when his Justin Gaethje epic unfolded before our eyes at UFC 300. Following a knockout loss to Ilia Topuria back at featherweight, Holloway returned to 155 pounds — and the winner's circle — by retiring longtime nemesis Dustin Poirier this past June. The narrative after Holloway and Poirier's 2019 rematch heavily surrounded a size difference, but that wasn't the case in the trilogy.

Holloway performed similarly against Poirier as he did in his upgraded display against Gaethje, and ultimately Poirier had few answers to Holloway's high volume and cage control. However, the second round did provide a scare for Holloway, as Poirier landed clean boxing combinations fueled by the energy of his New Orleans home crowd. That was more of a testament to Poirier being a perpetually dangerous striker than Holloway being unfit for lightweight.

Regarding overall offensive versatility, it's not even a question who carries more danger: It's Oliveira.

The UFC's all-time submission king has that grappling in his back pocket, ready to suffocate and subdue any foe put in his way. On the feet, he's shined more throughout his championship reign, using vicious punches and disgusting clinch work to break his opponents into submission opportunities if he can't get the knockout. He's the finisher among finishers, though Holloway simply isn't one to be finished.

If Holloway had suffered more knockout losses than just his setback against Topuria, I'd be heavily inclined to take Oliveira in this rematch. And against Mateusz Gamrot in his latest fight, Oliveira looked as good as ever, methodically cooking the Pol into a patented face crank.

So, what's the factor holding Oliveira back?

Well, he's just far too hittable.

Even though Oliveira has that same Fabricio Werdum-style, guard-baiting ability, Holloway is too smart to take any chances on the mat. We've seen Holloway take shots aplenty from the best of the best — but more importantly, he's defended more than he's absorbed, which gives him the edge in big exchanges.

You can't not love both of these guys. The champ is just a touch more defensively sound.

Pick: Holloway


The "RDR" train unexpectedly crashed at UFC Vancouver in October against Brendan Allen, and I'm still not sure how much that result tells us.

Featuring arguably the two best jiu-jitsu players at 185 pounds, this matchup has all the makings of a great grappling contest. Of course, that means the ground action will likely cancel out, leaving us with an awkwardly fun, sloppy kickboxing match. In that case, Borralho has the advantage.

De Ridder's primary attacks on the feet are his rangy step-in knees. If he gets hold of you, he'll deliver them tight in the clinch or work his way into trips, regardless of the stylistic matchup. Borralho was somewhat exposed against a superior striker, Nassourdine Imavov, in his most recent fight, but his win over Jared Cannonier is still very telling of the Brazilian's talent. His bread and butter is grappling, yet he battered Cannonier on the feet and nearly finished the one-time title challenger on multiple occasions.

Borralho has a tight enough boxing game that even if he absorbs knees from "RDR," he should still find the chin. Ultimately, I just hope we get to see some sick scrambles and submission threats out of these two, but I'm not holding my breath.

Pick: Borralho


Prospect vs. proven vet is the name of the game here. After nearly a full year away, Raul Rosas Jr. continues his fast track through the bantamweight division against longtime contender Rob Font.

Font remains one of the division’s slickest pure boxers, weaponizing a piston-like jab and relentless pace to overwhelm opponents on the feet. The issue? Rosas Jr. probably isn’t interested in playing that game — at least, he shouldn't be.

The 21-year-old phenom’s path is obvious: Close distance, wrestle relentlessly and drag the fight into his grappling world as quickly as possible. Rosas Jr. has made a habit of suffocating opponents early, and Font’s historically shaky takedown defense gives the youngster a clear lane to exploit. However, it must be stated that Font's level of competition has been the cream of the crop at 135 pounds.

If Font can keep things standing long enough, his experience and volume could turn this into an uncomfortable night for the prospect. Any moment on the feet favors him heavily, and seeing how Font performed in his latest prospect bouts, I'm not ready to give up on him just yet.

Pick: Font


NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA - JULY 19: Michael Johnson punches Daniel Zellhuber of Mexico in a lightweight bout during the UFC 318 event at Smoothie King Center on July 19, 2025 in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Photo by Cooper Neill/Zuffa LLC)
Michael Johnson is becoming the new Jim Miller.
Cooper Neill via Getty Images

Drew Dober is just a fun time. The lightweight fan-favorite thrives in chaos, marching forward with bricks for hands. Pair him with a fellow veteran in Michael Johnson, and something has to give. Don't expect a wrestling match to break out.

Johnson has become one of MMA’s great enigmas. At his best, the speedy southpaw looks like a world-beater with slick boxing and sharp counters. At his worst, well, bettors know the rollercoaster. Yet, here we are. Johnson is on his first three-fight win streak in a decade. Like a lightweight Andrei Arlovski, he's seemingly found the fountain of youth at age 39.

This fight should be wildly competitive and get scrappy fast. But as gorgeously sculpted as Dober's jawline is, it's also become unreliable, attracting punches like planets orbiting the sun.

Pick: Johnson


Gregory “Robocop” Rodrigues and Brunno Ferreira are two middleweights who seem perfectly happy settling things with blunt-force trauma. We saw that in their first fight, so here comes the sequel.

Rodrigues is the more proven commodity, mixing serious power with a surprisingly slick grappling game — when he remembers it exists. Ferreira, meanwhile, fights like every round has a 30-second expiration date. He's explosive, dangerous and occasionally reckless. The latter concerns me in a rematch with "Robocop."

Someone is probably getting slept here again. The question is whether Ferreira lands his bomb first or Rodrigues drags things just long enough for his experience to take over and channel flashbacks to their first fight. Give me "Robocop" going 2-0 against Ferreira.

Pick: Rodrigues


Any new Cody Garbrandt matchup begs the eternal question: "What happened, man?"

It just never ceases to amaze me how his career played out. With the former champion having suffered two consecutive losses, a win over Xiao Long may be necessary to keep Garbrandt's spot on the roster.

Ricky Turcios is in a similar position to Garbrandt. The winner of "The Ultimate Fighter 29" hasn't lived up to his potential, going 1-3 in his past four bouts with another loss equaling three straight defeats.

Fighters have their backs against the wall on the UFC 326 prelims. Presumably, that should provide some extra urgency, but none of these fights will significantly affect the ladders in any division.

Quick picks

  • Xiao Long (-160) def. Cody Garbrandt (+135)

  • Donte Johnson (-900) def. Cody Brundage (+600)

  • Alberto Montes (-190) def. Ricky Turcios (+155)

  • Nyamjargal Tumendemberel (-145) def. Cody Durden (+120)

  • Su Mudaerji (-250) def. Jesús Santos Aguilar (+200)

  • Diyar Nurgozhay (+165) def. Rafael Tobias (-200)

  • Lee Jeong-yeong (-300) def. Gaston Bolaños (+275)

  • Luke Fernandez (-235) def. Rodolfo Bellato (+275)

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