Welcome back to the Monday Tennis Briefing, where The Athletic will explain the stories behind the stories from the past week on court.

This week, the WTA Tour Finals race went down to the wire, a rising Czech talent produced a run of comebacks, and injuries pockmarked the end of the year.

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Why will the WTA Tour Finals race go down to the wire?

A fortnight ago, Jasmine Paolini and Elena Rybakina were in a straight fight for the last spot at the season-ending WTA Tour Finals in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Jessica Pegula and Mirra Andreeva were yet to qualify, but their positions looked too secure for Italy’s Paolini or Kazakhstan’s Rybakina to surpass them:

Pegula qualified by reaching the Wuhan Open final, where she lost to Coco Gauff, but Andreeva’s troubling run of form, which has been marked by frustration bubbling over throughout her matches, continued at the Ningbo Open in China, where she lost to world No. 219 Zhu Lin.

Rybakina then beat Paolini in the semifinals there, before beating Ekaterina Alexandrova, who is No. 10 in the race but too many points behind to be a factor in it, to win the title. That left the race looking like this:

At first glance, it looks like a three-player fight for two spots, but Paolini’s qualification was confirmed over the weekend because Andreeva did not pursue a wild card into the Pan Pacific Open in Tokyo, a WTA 500 event that begins this week, according to a representative. With the Russian not competing, she and Rybakina can’t go past Paolini, so the Italian has qualified.

Rybakina’s apparent 15-point deficit to Andreeva is also misleading. A player’s WTA Tour ranking is composed of 18 events, and Rybakina has already played 18 this year. Players are also required to count their points earned at the six combined WTA 1000 / ATP Masters 1000 tournaments before factoring in their best results at the other WTA 1000s and smaller events.

Some of Rybakina’s worst performances came at those combined events, and some of her best came at the other tournaments. Her worst, best result outside of the combined 1000-level events is a WTA 500 semifinal, which carries 195 points. Rybakina has to match that at the Pan Pacific Open for it to count on her total, replacing the 150 points that she won at the United Cup in January. That will require two wins.

— James Hansen

Another week of injuries as the season ebbs to a close?

It’s a long season and the wear and tear is starting to show in a big way.

Naomi Osaka became the latest victim last week in Japan, playing on home turf in the city she shares a name with — Osaka.

Osaka has been desperate to win her first WTA Tour title in four years. She has come so close this year, but it looks like that will have to wait for next year. Osaka, a semifinalist at the U.S. Open and a finalist at the Canadian Open in Montreal, has been playing high-level tennis the past two months on her favorite surface. She was doing it again at the Japan Open. Then she suffered a leg injury in the final set of her quarterfinal match with Suzan Lamens of the Netherlands, the defending champion.

Osaka limped through the final games and was tearing up on the court as she won the match. Unsurprisingly, she could not answer the bell for her quarterfinal against Romania’s Jaqueline Cristian.

She would later release a video, saying: “And that’s a wrap on my year. Great year, everybody. Let’s do it again next year. Maybe a little differently. But yeah, it was fun. Thank you. And see you in Australia.”

A couple of days later, Holger Rune walked onto the court for his Nordic Open semifinal against Ugo Humbert in Stockholm with a bandaged left leg and left it in tears with a ruptured Achilles tendon. Following Rune’s injury, which carries a layoff that could extend to 12 months, players started hitting the drumbeat louder on what’s causing so many breakdowns.

On X, Jack Draper, who ended his season with bone bruising in his left elbow at the U.S. Open, wrote: “We are pushing our bodies to do things they aren’t supposed to in elite sport. We have so many incredible younger guys on the tour right now and I’m proud to be a part of that; however, the tour and the calendar have to adapt if any of us are gonna achieve some sort of longevity.”

Taylor Fritz added that he has been “seeing more injuries and burnout now than ever before because balls, courts, conditions have slowed down a lot, making the weekly grind even more physically demanding and tough on the body.”

— Matt Futterman

How did Tereza Valentová make a statement beyond her results?

One of the toughest transitions for a player such as Tereza Valentová should be going from stomping the competition on the World Tennis Tour (formerly ITF), to getting stomped on the WTA Tour.

Partly because of being under-ranked at the start of 2024 after extending her recovery from an abdominal injury, Valentová, 18, instead has a remarkably consistent record of winning against players above her. Of her 38 wins in 43 matches in 2024, 19 came against players ranked above her. In 2025, she is 19-6 at WTA Tour level, with a 10-5 record against players ranked above her.

Four of those wins came last week at the Japan Open, two of them from a set down. This should not be a surprise to anyone who has watched her this year, including at the Grand Slams — she came from 2-5 down in the third set to win her first main-draw match at the French Open against Chloe Paquet, and beat Lucia Bronzetti in another seesaw at the U.S. Open. In Osaka, she went all the way to her first WTA Tour final, where she met Leylah Fernandez, the 2021 U.S. Open finalist.

Even getting to three sets against a point-constructor like the Canadian, after being bageled in the first set of the biggest match of her career, displays resilience, though Valentová ultimately lost 6-0, 5-7, 6-3.

Her sheer talent — an ever-more dangerous serve, the injections of speed and changes of direction, the willingness to use drop shots and craft without fear — is clear to see, but dig a bit deeper into how she has plotted her rise in the past 18 months and the solidity is clear to see as well.

Her forehand is still rushable and hits the net too often rather than at least going long, and as seen against Coco Gauff at the French Open, she’s still developing the lungs she will need to sustain her talent against the top players. But much like her career to date, it’s how she did what she did in Osaka, more than what she did, that makes the run another piece of evidence that Valentová has all the attributes to succeed.

— James Hansen

How did the runners and riders for the ATP Tour Finals do?

It was a weekend for all the believers that motivation plays a big role in determining winners and losers in tennis.

There’s a scramble going on among the men for the final spots at the ATP Tour Finals in Turin, Italy, which come with the opportunity to win a share of roughly $ 15 million in prize money. It’s not as tight as the two-horse race on the WTA Tour, but there is still time for a late surge. And with most of the top eight either preoccupied by the Six Kings Slam in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, or injured, the people just outside the top eight behaved just as a believer in motivation might expect, with ranking points up for grabs.

The only active player on the tour in the top eight was No. 8 Lorenzo Musetti, who lost to Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard in Brussels and let the three immediately behind him gain some ground.

Félix Auger-Aliassime, who is No. 9 for rankings points won in 2025, beat Jiří Lehečka to win the European Open in Brussels. While he was doing that, Casper Ruud was continuing his late-season surge, beating Ugo Humbert to win the Nordic Open Stockholm. And then there was Daniil Medvedev, who lost in the first round at three of the four Grand Slams this year, but is still somehow in the race to grab one of the spots for the best eight willing and able players. Medvedev beat Corentin Moutet to win the title in Almaty, Kazakhstan — his first since 2023.

Willing and able is an important distinction there. These players would be struggling to get into the ATP Tour Finals without some help from those above. Draper ended his season in September and has fallen out of the top five and down to No. 10 as a result. Novak Djokovic, who is No. 3, has yet to commit and continues to play in a physically compromised state. No. 6 Ben Shelton’s comeback from a shoulder injury at the U.S. Open is uncertain.

There might even be another slot that opens in the coming weeks.

— Matt Futterman

Shot of the week

Whether it’s the last game of a Grand Slam final or break point in an exhibition match, Carlos Alcaraz is going to hit a criminally perfect drop shot. He did it against Taylor Fritz at the Six Kings Slam by spotting Fritz losing his balance on the forehand side, before floating a ball that died on the court:

🏆 The winners of the week

🎾 ATP: 

🏆 Daniil Medvedev (2) def. Corentin Moutet (8) 7-5, 4-6, 6-3 to win the Almaty Open (250) in Almaty, Kazakhstan. It is the Russian’s 21st ATP singles title, all 21 of which have come at different tournaments.

🏆 Félix Auger-Aliassime (2) def. Jiří Lehečka (3) 7-6(2), 6-7(6), 6-2 to win the European Open (250) in Brussels. It is the Canadian’s third title of the year.

🏆 Casper Ruud (2) def. Ugo Humbert (4) 6-2, 6-3 to win the Nordic Open (250) in Stockholm. It is the Norwegian’s second title of the year.

🎾 WTA:

🏆 Elena Rybakina (3) def. Ekaterina Alexandrova (4) 3-6, 6-0, 6-2 to win the Ningbo Open (500) in Ningbo, China. It is the Kazakh’s second title of the year.

🏆 Leylah Fernandez (4) def. Tereza Valentová (Q) 6-0, 5-7, 6-3 to win the Japan Open (250) in Osaka, Japan. It is the Canadian’s second title of the year.

📈📉 On the rise / Down the line

📈 Tereza Valentová moves up 20 places from No. 78 to No. 58, a career-high ranking.

📈 Corentin Moutet ascends five spots from No. 41 to No. 36, also a career high.

📈 Janice Tjen enters the top 80 after rising 18 spots from No. 98.

📉 Roberto Bautista Agut falls 30 places from No. 57 to No. 87.

📉 Mirra Andreeva drops three places from No. 6 to No. 9.

📉 Hugo Gaston drops out of the top 100, falling 16 spots from No. 97 to No. 113.

📅 Coming up

🎾 ATP 

📍Vienna: Vienna Open (500) featuring Jannik Sinner, Alexander Zverev, Daniil Medvedev, Alexander Bublik.

📍Basel, Switzerland: Swiss Indoors Basel (500) featuring Taylor Fritz, Valentin Vacherot, Ben Shelton, João Fonseca.

📺 UK: Sky Sports; U.S.: Tennis Channel 💻 Tennis TV

🎾 WTA

📍Tokyo: Pan Pacific Open (500) featuring Elena Rybakina, Ekaterina Alexandrova, Victoria Mboko, Karolína Muchová.

📍Guangzhou, China: Guangzhou Open (250) featuring Tatjana Maria, Tereza Valentová, Alexandra Eala, Sonay Kartal.

📺 UK: Sky Sports; U.S.: Tennis Channel

Tell us what you noticed this week in the comments below as the men’s and women’s tours continue.

This article originally appeared in The Athletic.

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