The 2025 NBA Draft starts at No. 3.

The first two spots are a lock: Duke's Cooper Flagg is going No. 1 to Dallas (there is zero chance they trade this pick) and Rutgers' Dylan Harper will be taken No. 2, very likely by San Antonio (the Spurs will listen to trade offers, but unless it's a Giannis Antetokounmpo-level deal they will hold on to the pick).

In NBC Sports’ latest 2025 NBA Mock Draft, we have Rutgers' Ace Bailey going No. 3 to Philadelphia and Baylor's VJ Edgecombe going No. 4 to Charlotte. While that is the most likely outcome, those two picks are far less certain.

Bailey no lock at No. 3

The main reason there is uncertainty about Bailey going No. 3 is that there is uncertainty about who will be drafting third. Thanks to the lucky bounces of the lottery ping-pong balls, the Philadelphia 76ers own that pick and are open to trading down. This is a win-now team run by Daryl Morey, someone who never shies away from a bold move.

While drafting Bailey to pair with younger star Tyrese Maxey and the promising Jared McCain would create a clear future timeline for the team, the 76ers have Joel Embiid and Paul George on the roster now and are committed to winning with them. If a trade is presented that makes Philly a more dangerous threat in what should be a wide-open East next season, Morey will have to strongly consider it.

That team moving up to that third pick may feel differently about Bailey, who is a polarizing player, something ESPN’s Jeremy Woo wrote about in their latest mock draft.

"Bailey has remained polarizing for NBA executives all season, with the wide understanding that he'll need time to adjust before contributing winning minutes on a good team. There are varying levels of confidence around the NBA as to whether he will reach his ceiling ultimately, creating a layer of risk that has held him back from becoming the consensus option at No. 3."

The question isn't Bailey's potential — he might have the second-highest ceiling of any player in this draft (behind Flagg). Bailey checks all the boxes of a prototypical modern NBA wing or stretch four: Good size at 6'8", freak athlete, creates his own shot, and can shoot the 3. He averaged 18.4 points and 7.2 rebounds per game last season.

What makes him polarizing is that some executives and scouts doubt his ability to live up to that potential. He lived on a diet of tough shots at Rutgers, and while he made them that is harder to do against defenders at the next level. He didn't draw a lot of fouls and shot 69.2% from the line. While he could be a future All-Star if he plays a simplified game and focuses on efficiency, some executives and scouts fear that he may not do so and become a role player who never lives up to the hype.

Edgecombe brings two-way play

Edgecombe had "an excellent interview with the Hornets," reports Kevin O’Connor of Yahoo Sports. He seems a natural fit in Charlotte as the two guard between LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller because he is arguably the best athlete in this class and is an elite defender (which is needed next to Ball), plus he shot 36.4% from 3 last season. Edgecombe can get out in transition and moves well off the ball, which would be a hand-in-glove fit with Ball.

If he gets to No. 3.

A team that trades up to the No. 3 spot may be more interested in the athleticism, two-way play and higher floor of Edgecombe over having to work to develop Bailey. If so, they could take Edgecombe third and leave Bailey to Charlotte. Some mock drafts see it that way, although it's difficult to pick because it depends on who has the No. 3 selection when Adam Silver walks to the podium.

At the draft, upside tends to win out — when picking as high as third, GMs don't want to pass on the potential future All-Star. Doing so could lead to hard questions in a couple of years from fans and ownership about why they made the pick they did. It's not a good look for a guy trying to hang onto his job. Which is why Bailey likely goes third, but it is far from a lock. And a lot depends on draft-night trades that could shake up the top of the board.