UFC 325 happens this weekend (Sat., Jan. 29, 2026) inside Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney, Australia and broadcast live on Paramount+ for the second time ever. Paramount+’s second premium live event features a legitimate title on the line, none of this interim nonsense.

Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes 2 is for Volkanovski’s UFC Featherweight title. Lopes gets the call to rematch Volkanovski despite Movsar Evloev and Lerone Murphy having very good cases for a title shot. Lopes looked like a star at his last night, in front of a partisan crowd celebrating Mexican heritage. That resonance with a fan base might have given him the edge when it came to bagging this second title shot.

The co-main event sees Dan Hooker take on Benoit Saint-Denis in what should be an action-filled fight. Rounding out the main card is Rafael Fiziev vs. Mauricio Ruffy, Tai Tuivasa vs. Tallison Teixeira and Quillan Salkilld vs. Jamie Mullarkey.

There are a some interesting Australian prospects on the “Prelims”, in the form of Cam Rowston and Jonathan Micallef. The early “Prelims” are Road to UFC finals featuring names only known to the most hardcore Asia/Oceania MMA watchers.

As always, there’s lots to bet on this card and we’ve got odds for all the fights below:

UFC 324 Main Card Money Line Odds

Alexander Volkanovski (-155) vs. Diego Lopes (+130)

Volkanovski and Lopes first fought in April 2025, with Volkanovski earning a unanimous decision to reclaim the UFC Featherweight title. Lopes had his moments in the fight, but this wasn’t a hard decision for the judges. Lopes seemed to get stuck in one gear, marching forwards at Volkanovski trying to land a KO shot. This led to Volkanovski tapping Lopes on the chin, repeatedly, before getting out of the way of that big shot. Lopes has a hell of a chin, but all those strikes eventually served to slow him down.

Since that loss Lopes won a wild fight against Jean Silva, which ended due to some brutal elbows onto the top of Silva’s head (see that here).

Volkanovski hasn’t fought since their first fight. His win over Lopes came after back-to-back stoppage losses to Ilia Topuria and Islam Makhachev.

The main difference between these two and the last time they have met is that they’ve both gotten about a year older. For the 31 year-old Lopes, that can be seen as a positive. For the 37 year-old Volkanovski, it could be seen as a negative. But I’m not too fixated on the age gap here. They aren’t that far apart and Volkanovski didn’t look old last April.

Lopes would have had a morale boost from his Silva win. But Volkanovski will be feeling confident based on him winning the first fight. Lopes now knows what doesn’t work against Volkanovski. But Volkanovski does know what works against Lopes.

As you can see, I’m finding it hard to pick a clear winner in this one.

Volkanovski’s numbers are fantastic, as you’d expect from a champion who has been at this for a while. He lands 6.18 significant strikes a minute with a 56 percent accuracy. He absorbs 3.36 with a 58 percent defense. That puts him fourth in the division for strikes landed per minute and second for striking differential. He’s also third for takedown defense and top in bottom position percentage time.

Lopes is notable for being the only fighter in the division who is top five in both knockdowns per 15 minutes and submissions per 15 minutes. That’s an amazing feat, but, as we saw in April, it didn’t translate to Lopes being able to stop the famously tough (and crafty) Volkanovski.

I’m leaning Volkanovski in this one, but I don’t want to do a moneyline bet here.

The round total is set at 3.5 and I think that’s low. I see this going to a decision, just like the last fight. The over is -165 and the under is +120.

Fight to end by decision is also tempting for me. That’s +100 and it might be the only way for me to find plus money on this fight. Lopes has been stopped in the distant past. But I feel like he’s a different fighter now and he’s unlikely to get folded by Volkanovski’s striking. I think he’s also too good on the ground to get stuck and be pummelled enough to elicit a TKO.

I am weary of Lopes having enough in his locker to finish Volkanovski. If he changes his approach for this fight, which he should, and looks to mix in some takedowns and kicks along with his power punches, then he might find more success across all those attacks. If he hits a groove, he could add his name to the very impressive list of names who have stopped Volk.

Given that concern, I’ll go with the over and — that way — I’m safe if there is a late finish.

Best bet: Over 3.5 rounds (-165)

Dan Hooker (+250) vs. Benoit Saint-Denis (-310)

Hooker was humbled by Arman Tsarukyan in November, in a bad tempered fight that had Tsarukyan looking like a champion in waiting. Hooker was taking down a bunch in that fight and also beaten up on the feet, to a degree we weren’t expecting in this match-up. Before that he earned a very nice split decision over the favored Mateusz Gamrot.

Saint-Denis flattened Beneil Dariush with a left hook after just 16 seconds in November (see it here). That followed up his masterful performance over the dangerous Mauricio Ruffy, who he totally neutered by taking down and refusing to let up. Before that he got a finish over short notice opponent Kyle Prepolec. These three wins have help fade memories of the brutal beatings he took to both Renato Moicano and Dustin Poirier in 2024.

I think there is a fair bit of daylight between Saint-Denis and Tsarukyan, but they’re close enough in skillset and talent that I think we could see a similar fight here to what happened recently in Qatar. I don’t see the same level of aggression (fuelled by bitterness) when it comes from Saint-Denis, but I think his wrestling pedigree, and submissions, will cause Hooker a lot of problems.

Hooker has never been an elite Lightweight. He’s managed to score fights with plenty of elite opponents, though, thanks to his personality and his reputation for putting on exciting fights.

Hooker’s action style is best summed up by the fact he lands 4.89 sig. strikes a minute and also absorbs 4.73 sig. strikes a minute. If he had a lopsided winning record that would be fine, but he’s 14-9 in UFC with three TKO losses. He’s a typical take one to land one guy, but that tactic hasn’t equated to much success (other than his success at constantly getting fight bookings).

Saint-Denis absorbs a fair bit of punishment, too. He absorbs 4.21 sig. strikes a minute, but lands over 5. And those numbers are skewed by the two fights with Moicano and Poirier where he absorbs 100 sig. strikes and landed just 53.

BSD has clearly learned a lot after those losses, though. It’s hard to say that Hooker has ever shown he’s learned much from his losses, though, which are plentiful.

I think Saint-Denis is going to do just fine on the feet and might even hurt Hooker there. But I also think he’ll really shine on the ground, again, an area where Hooker will be out of his element, again. I’ll take Saint-Denis -7.5 expecting a finish.

Best bet: Benoit Saint-Denis -7.5 (-145)

Rafael Fiziev (-102) vs. Mauricio Ruffy (-118)

Fiziev put on a very good show in June, taking a unanimous decision over the rising Ignacio Bahamondes. Before that he returned from a two year hiatus to fight Justin Gaethje on somewhat short notice. He and Gaethje put on a Fight of the Night performance, but he was a clear second best on the night. His fight prior to this was the bout with Mateusz Gamrot in 2023 where he suffered a terrible knee injury.

Ruffy was dominated last time out. Benoit Saint-Denis grounded and smothered him, before eventually strangling him for the second round submission (see it here). Prior to that he went viral with his heel kick KO over King Green (see it here). That kick probably caused the Fighting Nerds hype-train to hit critical mass.

This is a very interesting fight.

Fiziev is more experienced and battle tested. Ruffy is longer and has the more recent highlight reel KOs. When it comes to Ruffy, this is what we said about Bahamondes, too. Bahamondes has an identical reach to Ruffy (four inches longer than Fiziev) and yet, Fiziev was able to out land him 62-50. He also held Bahamondes to 34 percent accuracy on his sig. strikes, over ten points lower than his career average.

Ruffy was just badly exposed for having a total lack of takedown defense or any form of get ups. Normally we’d say that Fiziev is not the man who is very likely to exploit that. However, he took Bahamondes down four times (on four attempts) in his last fight. And he took Gaethje down twice (on two attempts) in their most recent fight.

Prior to the Gaethje rematch the last takedown Fiziev landed was on Marc Diakiese in 2020.

I think this maturing game for Fiziev has come about because Ataman has had a dose of reality lately. His long time on the sidelines due to injury might have showed him how short his time in the sport could be and that if he wants the most success possible, he needs wins and not highlights.

If he looks for the win on Saturday, I think he’s going to get it.

Best bet: Rafael Fiziev moneyline (-102)

Tai Tuivasa (+245) vs. Tallison Teixeira (-305)

Tuivasa remains a ranked UFC heavyweight despite not fighting since August, 2024 and despite being on a five fight losing streak. Those losses include a split decision against Jairzinho Rozenstruik and submissions against Marcin Tybura and Alexander Volkov.

The giant Teixeira impressed with a 35 second finish over Justin Tafa (see it here). That earned him a main event against Derrick Lewis four months later. That fight ended in 35 seconds, too. After a wild exchange, Lewis did enough to make Teixeira turn from the action and that was enough to elicit an early stoppage. Lewis had already stripped down to his undies and was whipping up the crowd before Teixeira had a chance to complain about what had happened.

This feels like a horrible match-up for Tuivasa. He’s five inches shorter than Teixeira and is giving up a whopping eight inches of reach. He’s also six years older, in human years (he’s much older in fight years). The match-makers must be really asleep at the wheel if they think this kind of fight is a good idea. It seems most likely that the crowd are going to get very excited to see Tuivasa and then very depressed to see him pasted by this young up-and-comer. Tuivasa should have been given a much more winnable fight here, to at least give the fans the chance to see a celebratory shoe-y!

Best bet: Tallison Teixeira by KO/TKO/DQ (-250)

Quillan Salkilld (-1050) vs. Jamie Mullarkey (+675)

Salkilld is one of the hottest prospects on the roster right now. The 26 year-old just took Nasrat Haqparast’s head off with a head kick from hell (see it here). Before that he out wrestled Yanal Ashmouz for a comfortable decision. And before that he wiped out Anshul Jubli with the first punch he threw (see it here).

He was supposed to fight Rongzhu on Saturday. That would have been a lot of fun, but the Chinese fighter had to withdraw from the bout.

In steps Jamie Mullarkey. Mullarkey got a much needed win in September, earning a decision over Rolando Bedoya. Before that he was lit up and put away by Maurio Ruffy (see it here) and Haqparast.

Someone needs to revoke Mullarkey’s agent’s license for this. This just feels like a horrible idea. Mullarkey gets hit with 4.34 sig. strikes a minute, which is way above average. And Salkilld lands 5.49 sig. strikes a minute at a very high 57 percent accuracy. We’ve seen Salkilld land sickening KOs with his hands and his feet at this point and I can’t help but believe we’re going to see Mullarkey face down after just a few exchanges.

Salkilld has shown intelligence, thus far, in his UFC career. He knows when to wrestle and when to strike. Against Mullarkey he must sense that striking is his quickest and clearest path to victory. To escape those ridiculous (but fair) moneyline odds, I’ll play the under.

Best bet: Under 1.5 rounds (-160)

UFC 325 ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds

Junior Tafa (+205) vs. Billy Elekana (-250)

Tafa’s Light Heavyweight debut didn’t go great in July. He lost to Tuco Tokkos by a second round arm triangle (see it here). Before that he beat Sean Sharaf by TKO, back in October 2024. Also in 2024 Tafa fell victim to a Valter Walker heel hook and a TKO from Marcos Rogerio Lima.

Elekana clubbed and subbed Kevin Christian in November for his first UFC finish (see it here). Prior to that he won a decision over Ibo Aslan, which was quite possibly the worst fight of 2025. Before that he lost his short notice UFC debut to Bogdan Guskov.

I’m really not very sold on either of these guys. If anything, I am at least somewhat moved by Elekana’s ability to win his last two and also look not totally out of his depth in that debut with Guskov. Despite Tafa being a former Heavyweight, Elekana will actually match him for height and have a two inch reach advantage.

I think Tafa might struggle with how much more risk adverse Elekana is, compared to most his former foes at Heavyweight. If he’s not able to get into a brawl, we might see him get a little sulky (as we’ve seen in the past).

The round total for this is 1.5. That feels a little low. Both these guys are pretty durable and if Elekana plays keep away, then this fight could go into those deep waters.

Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (-125)

Cam Rowston (-360) vs. Cody Brundage (+285)

Rowston lived up to his ‘Battle Giraffe’ nickname in his debut, towering over Andre Petroski, whom he put away with strikes in the first round (see it here). He’s 13-3 as a pro. His most recent loss was to Torrez Finney on Contender Series in 2024. One of his other losses is to Jacob Malkoun in 2017.

Brundage lost a close fight to Eric McConico in August. I, and many others, scored that fight for Brundage, though. Before that he had a draw against Mansur Abdul-Malik in a fight that was called off early due to an accidental headbutt. Prior to that he earned a first round TKO win over Julian Marquez in a wild fight (see it here).

I quite like Rowston and not just because of his funny nickname. His size, and reach, could cause Brundage a lot of problems. Brundage is a very unpredictable fighter who is capable of pouring on a lot of offense (wrestling and striking) and also being very sloppy and leaving himself open.

The one thing holding me back on picking Rowston is the takedown defense. Finney was able to get him down ten times on 14 attempts. I feel like Brundage, if he chooses a smart approach here, could find a lot of success dumping Rowston into the corner of the cage and sitting on him.

The round total for this one is pretty low, at 1.5 rounds. If Brundage goes for Rowston’s weakness, then I think this fight will last longer than one and a half rounds. If Brundage comes to swing punches, then I think it finishes before that.

I’ll bet on a fighter making a good decision here (terrible idea, I know).

Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (-110)

Jacob Malkoun (-155) vs. Torrez Finney (+130)

Malkoun hasn’t fought since March, 2024. That’s when he finished Andre Petroski with a second round TKO (see it here). Before that he was DQ’d against Cody Brundage for strikes to the back of the head. Malkoun has been with UFC since 2020. He’s got a 4-3 record in the promotion.

Finney is 11-0 and coming off a split decision win over Robert Valentin in April. The only reason that was a split decision was because one judge was so disgusted with Finney’s total commitment to takedown attempts, with zero striking before or after, that he scored the fight for Valentin out of spite.

There’s gonna be takedowns in this fight.

Finney, thanks to his hilariously awful fight with Valentin, has scored 9.31 takedowns per 15 mins across his four fight UFC career. He lands them at 60 percent, which is pretty good — especially for a takedown spam artist who doesn’t care that much about completing the takedown.

Malkoun lands 6.62 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 42 percent accuracy clip. That kind of accuracy is more common when the number of takedowns per 15 mins gets up over 5. Malkoun has landed takedowns on some decent opposition, too. He got Brendan Allen down on seven out of fourteen attempts.

Unlike Finney, Malkoun is not just a takedown artist. He lands 3.86 sig. strikes a minute, which gives him a positive sig. strike differential. Finney lands just 1.77 sig. strikes a minute. His good 60 percent accuracy on those strikes just tells you how little he is throwing.

Malkoun being able to get takedowns and have some desire for hitting people is enough for me to take him here.

Best bet: Jacob Malkoun moneyline (-155)

UFC 325 Early ‘Prelims’

Jonathan Micallef (-135) vs. Oban Elliott (+114)

This fight was supposed to happen in September, but it had to be cancelled after Elliott got sick.

Elliot was likely bitterly disappointed to lose the fight then. He was probably eager to get back in the cage and try to erase memories of his previous performance, where he was totally dominated by newcomer Seokhyeon Ko. Ko, a short notice replacement for Ramiz Brahimaj, put on one of the best UFC debuts I can remember seeing.

Prior to that loss Elliott had looked quite impressive in wins over Bassil Hafez and Preston Parsons.

Micallef’s proper UFC debut was impressive, too. He kicked the heck out of Kevin Jousset to score a lopsided decision win.

I was really high on Elliott before he was undone by Ko. Now I have to decide whether that was because Elliott was not as good as advertised or if Ko is potentially quite special. Ko’s follow up fight certainly supported the latter there.

My question marks over Elliott aren’t helped by how high I am on Micallef after his debut. Though, Elliott (even if he’s not as good as I once thought) is still a decent step up from Jousset.

Micallef has a lot of reach over Elliott (five inches). That’s a good attribute to have if you’re an outside fighter like Micallef. Though, he’s been shown to use his kicks to keep his opponents at range more than his punches.

Elliott isn’t adverse to wrestling, so he might be able to do something with all those body kicks that Jousset wasn’t able to. Even so, I am still leaning towards Micallef in this fight, thinking he might be able to keep Elliott at arm’s (or leg’s) length for this fight.

I don’t see a finish in this fight, with both men being so technical and good defensively. Because of that I’ll take the over.

Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-215)

Kaan Ofli (+180) vs. Yizha (-218)

Ofli scored his first UFC win in October, with a submission win over Ricardo Ramos. Prior to that he lost a unanimous decision to Muhammad Naimov and was KO’d by Mairon Santos to lose his finale fight on TUF.

Yizha blitzed through Westin Wilson in just 37 seconds in his last fight (see it here). Before that he lost a unanimous decision to Gabriel Santos. He looked competitive in that fight, though. And Santos is a name that is going to become much better known to UFC fans this year.

There were signs of life, when it comes to Ofli’s UFC career, late last year. However, I don’t like how poor his wrestling defense looked against Naimov. Yizha is a very game and persistent wrestler and I can see him dragging Ofli around a bit. Yizha is also very aggressive on the feet. Ofli has been rather passive thus far. I think Yizha probably out lands him and also scores the takedowns he needs to get a decision.

Best bet: Yizha moneyline (-218)

Dom Mar Fan (-175) vs. Sangwook Kim (+145)

This fight, and those that follow, are Road to UFC fights. I’m not going to break them down in any detail. The most I am going to do is watch their previous bouts and then pick a moneyline based on that.

Mar Fan aka ‘Street Buddha’ fights out of Brisbane. He beat Jae Hyun Park, by decision, in the previous round. He’s 8-2 and the only losses on his record are to Quillan Salkilld, who, we’ve already established, is pretty darn good. His two losses to Salkilld were both by rear naked choke. One was for the title in Eternal MMA, one of Australia’s better known promotions.

Kim’s nickname is ‘Frog Man’ and, based on watching Physical 100, I’m going to guess that’s because he’s a current or former member of some sort of special underwater team. He got to the final here by submitting Yawei Ren. He’s 32 and has a 13-3 record. One of his losses are to Jae Hyun Park, who Mar Fan, just beat. He also has a loss to Rongzhu, by decision. Kim also went 4-5 as an amateur.

Kim is more journeyman than prospect. I think Mar Fan will be a little cleaner in all departments. He’ll also be getting some great cornering.

Best bet: Dom Mar Fan moneyline (-175)

Sebastian Szalay (-125) vs. Keiichiro Nakamura (+105)

Szalay is 31 and fights out of Perth. He got a 41-second TKO win, over Chang Min Yoon, in the previous round. He also has a win over former Road to UFC finalist Baergeng Jieleyisi. He’s also a former champ at Eternal MMA, one of Australia’s better known promotions.

Nakamura is 27 and 7-1. He won a decision over Kaiwen Li in the last round. He turned pro in 2022, yet in 2024 he went back to amateur MMA to compete in, and win, something called Fighting Agent War – THE MAX.

I think Szalay is probably on a higher level than Nakamura, given his past performances. I think that’s enough for him to cancel out the size disadvantage he’ll have in there.

Best bet: Sebastian Szalay moneyline (-125)

Sulangrangbo (-258) vs. Lawrence Lui (+210)

Sulangrangbo is a 20 year-old member of Chengdu’s Enbo Fight Club, a gym that is infamous for ‘adopting’ scores of orphans (mostly from marginalized ethnic groups) and housing them in the gym, where they train MMA and learn to work, in various capacities, for gym owner En Bo. The kids also compete, from an early age, in MMA shows around Chengdu. Song Yadong is the most famous fighter to come out of this gym.

Sulangrangbo is 10-3. He lost his first two fights, back when he was just 15.

Lui is 29 and fights out of City KickBoxing. He was born in Hong Kong, but now reps New Zealand. He’s 7-1 and has some appearances with Eternal MMA and XFC.

I like Sulangrangbo’s youth and size in this match-up. Lui, who has the reach advantage, might cause a surprise, though.

Best bet: Sulangrangbo moneyline (-258)

Namsrai Batbayar (-125) vs. Aaron Tau (+105)

Batbayer, who hails from Mongolia, is 9-1. All his finishes are stoppages (4 TKO, 5 submission). He punched his ticket to this Flyweight title with a first round submission over the 13-1 Agulali.

Tau is from New Zealand. He’s 32, has an 11-1 record and he fights out of City Kickboxing. He took a unanimous decision over Shuai Yin in the last round.

Batbayar is younger seems to have more potent striking.

Best bet: Namsrai Batbayar

UFC 325 Long Shots!

Here’s a couple of long shots for Saturday night’s action …

Two fight parlay: Cody Brundage and Rafael Fiziev (+689)

Both of these fighters have plus odds (marginally in the case of Fiziev) and I think both have a great chance to win. And the reason for both is… wrestling. Brundage’s wrestling is no secret and his opponent, Cam Rowston, is very raw in that dimension of MMA (and has had his takedown defense exploited in the past). Fiziev’s wrestling has been evolving lately and he’s used it with a lot of success in his recent fights. His opponent, Mauricio Ruffy, told the entire division that they should try wrestling with him with his last performance.

Benoit Saint-Denis to win by Submission in Round 2 (+550)

I see a lot of similarities between this fight and both Saint-Denis vs. Mauricio Ruffy and Arman Tsarukyan vs. Dan Hooker. I think the Frenchman is going to be as good as he was on the ground against Ruffy and Hooker will be as powerless down there as he was against Tsarukyan. Saint-Denis vs. Ruffy ended in a second round submission. Tsarukyan vs. Hooker ended in a second round submission. This fight, then, could end in a second round submission.

Tai Tuivasa vs. Tallison Teixeira: Fight to End in the Last 10 Seconds of Any Round – Yes (+3000)

Last week we had two fights end at 4:59 and one at 4:57. And one of them was a Heavyweight fight. Tai Tuivasa is a tough guy who still gets finished. Three of his last four finish losses have come in the fifth minute of a round. He also famously KO’d Stefan Struve with one second left in the first round, back in 2020. I can see Teixeira putting a beat down on Tuivasa in the first, but the Aussie hanging in until the very last second.

---

To checkout the latest and greatest UFC 325: “Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.