UFC Vegas 113 happens this weekend (Sat., Feb. 7, 2026). This is the first UFC APEX (or should that be META APEX) show of the year and the Paramount+ era. It’s safe to say, given this fight card, that it’s business as usual despite the change in venue name and broadcast partner.

The main event features Bantamweights with Mario Bautista vs. Vinicius Oliveira on tap. Why anyone would want to watch Bautista fight for five rounds is beyond me. Hopefully Oliveira will liven things up a bit, though.

The co-main is Amir Albazi vs. KyojiHoriguchi. Horiguchi made a successful return to the Octagon last year and a second win could see him elevated to a title shot in the suddenly stagnant Flyweight division.

Rounding out the main card is Jailton Almeida vs. Rizvan Kuniev, Michal Oleksiejczuk vs. Marc-Andre Barriault and Jean Matsumoto vs. Farid Basharat.

UFC Vegas 113’s “Prelims” are headlined by Dustin Jacoby vs. Julius Walker. The pick of the undercard is probably Said Nurmagomedov vs. Javid Basharat, with Wang Cong vs. Eduarda Moura a close second.

As always, there’s lots to bet on this card and we’ve got odds for all the fights below:

UFC Vegas 113 Main Card Money Line Odds

Mario Bautista (-192) vs. Vinicius Oliveira (+160)

Bautista’s chances of being a dark horse Bantamweight contender were dented last time out, when he was controlled for three rounds by Umar Nurmagomedov. Before that he spoiled the UFC debut of Patchy Mix and took a questionable decision over Jose Aldo. Before that he took clear decisions over both Ricky Simon and Da’Mon Blackshear.

Oliveira announced himself with a flying knee KO over Bernardo Sopaj in March, 2024 (see it here). That then earned ‘Lok Dog’ a big-ish name for his second bout. In that bout, as a +210 underdog, he looked great in defending everything Ricky Simon could throw at him while lighting him up on the feet. That earned him a bout with an even bigger name. As a +135 underdog he out grappled Said Nurmagomedov for the victory and a Fight of the Night bonus. After that he was given fellow prospect Kyler Phillips, who he dominated.

I like Oliveira in this match-up. I like how he’s used his wrestling to hang with other wrestlers (Simon) and then exploit those who aren’t as comfortable there (Nurmagomedov). And I think his striking has a great balance between flashy violence and strategic restraint. I also really like Oliveira’s clinch work. He’s got some great knees and elbows there. That is all, in my opinion, going to make it very hard for Bautista to initiate his usual game plan; pop the jab, wall and stall, play for takedowns.

I don’t think Bautista is getting a takedown on Oliveira. He has an 80 percent takedown defense and that’s a legit number. Often you see takedown defense numbers on paper that look good, but don’t tell the whole story. Lots of guys have high numbers because they’ve not faced many wrestlers/takedowns in their careers. Oliveira’s 80 percent is hard earned, though.

He held Phillips to 1-5 takedowns (Phillips has a career 45 percent takedown accuracy). He held Simon to 2-11 takedowns (Simon has a career 41 percent takedown accuracy). He also held Nurmagomedov, who is not a great wrestler, to 1-9 takedown attempts.

With the takedown not likely to happen, Bautista is going to do his best to replicate his fight with Aldo. He racked up 7:15 control time in that fight with all that time being spent on the fence. He went 0-10 in takedowns in that fight, against the GOAT of takedown defense.

He was able to hold Aldo in place because he was bigger, stronger and younger. None of that will be the case when he fights Oliveira.

As you can see, I’m very keen on Oliveira in this fight. I’m taking that moneyline now. I think it’s going to shrink by fight time and we might even see Oliveira flip to being the favorite.

The point spread for this one is Oliveira +5.5 for -130. That’s appealing to me, because of all the insurance. But I am confident enough in Oliveira that I’m happy with his moneyline.

The round total for this is 4.5, as expected. I think it’s probably going to a decision. That’s despite both men being stopped before in their careers. I think Oliveira wins this, but I don’t think he’s going to run through Bautista. The over is +114 and the under is -145.

Winning method has some interesting options. Bautista to win by KO/TKO/DQ or Decision is +100. That should probably be your play if you totally disagree with me and think Bautista will get his hand raised on Saturday. Oliveira is +155 with the same prop.

Ultimately, though, I’m happy just betting on Lok Dog to get it done, no matter what.

Best bet: Vinicius Oliveira moneyline (+160)

Amir Albazi (+275) vs. Kyoji Horiguchi (-345)

Albazi returned from a year hiatus, due to neck issues, in November 2024. His return fight was a main event with Brandon Moreno. It didn’t go well for him. He was dominated by the Mexican for the lopsided unanimous decision. Before that long break, and bad loss, he had won six straight, including a split decision over Kai Kara-France.

Horiguchi returned to the UFC last year and looked fantastic in dispatching of the much feared Tagir Ulanbekov. He’d been with RIZIN prior to that, winning belts and tournaments, and scoring wins over names like Sergio Pettis and Kai Asakura.

I really did not like the way Albazi looked against Moreno. He was ring rust personified. The big question is whether that was a one-time thing or whether Albazi has fallen off due to his injury/surgery and getting another year older. A friendlier match-up here might have told us that. Unfortunately for him, though, it’s a situation of out of the frying pan and into the fire.

Horiguchi has a lot of momentum right now and he’s also just a bad stylistic match-up for Albazi. Albazi’s greatest strength is his wrestling, but the Gooch looked sensational on the ground against Ulanbekov (who also counts wrestling as his top skill).

If you’re not able to control Horiguchi on the ground, then you’re going to have to deal with him on the feet. And he’s one of the more powerful hitters we’ve seen at this weight-class… ever. 15 of his 35 career wins are by KO/TKO. And he’s also managed to go up in weight and score knockouts there.

If Albazi gets hit as much as he did against Moreno, then I think he could be at risk of his first career stoppage loss. Moreno landed 132 sig. strikes, albeit on 317 attempts. Albazi landed just 63 on 265 attempts in that fight (that’s a paltry 26 percent).

Albazi’s career striking numbers aren’t much better than what we saw against Moreno. His career striking accuracy is 34 percent, which is way below average and likely the worst among top ten Flyweights.

I feel very confident that Horiguchi is going to land a lot on Albazi, without getting much back in return. I’m just wondering how long Albazi can survive that.

The round total for this one is 2.5 rounds. And the under is a whopping +195. That’s likely that because of Albazi’s historical toughness. But, if he’s lost a step, and Horiguchi has gained one, I think there’s a finish coming here. I’m confident enough in that for me to take these long odds on a high round total.

Best bet: Under 2.5 rounds (+195)

Jailton Almeida (-142) vs. Rizvan Kuniev (+120)

Almeida fought a very boring fight against Alexander Volkov in October, despite Volkov’s best efforts. He ended up on the wrong side of a split decision. Technically, he probably should have been awarded the decision. But no one is going to advocate for him thanks to how dull his strategy was in that fight. Before that loss he beat Serhei Spivac and Alexandr Romanov.

After seeing his UFC debut pushed back on three separate occasions, Kuniev finally got to take on Curtis Blaydes in June. He lost that bout by split decision, but many scored it for the Russian.

I’m really hoping Almeida’s powers have peaked now and that we can forget about the threat of him anti-fighting his way to a Heavyweight title shot, or worse. Sadly, there’s a good chance he’s able to hold Kuniev down and get another UFC win here.

Kuniev struggled when he was grounded by Blaydes. I view Blaydes and Almeida pretty similarly when it comes to the smother-wrestling game. Kuniev did hurt Blaydes later in the fight, though, with his great combo striking. He was able to light up Blaydes despite having a four inch reach disadvantage. He only has a two inch reach disadvantage against Almeida.

My hope is that Kuniev learns from the Blaydes experience and comes out very aggressive and that his striking melts Almeida early on. Otherwise, we’re in for ten plus minutes of lay and pray.

My wishful thinking is feeling pretty powerful here and I’m just going to go straight up with Kuniev.

Best bet: Rizvan Kuniev moneyline (+120)

Michal Oleksiejczuk (-340) vs. Marc-Andre Barriault (+270)

Oleksiejczuk has won twice since joining the Fighting Nerds. Both those wins came by TKO. The first was over Sedriques Dumas (see it here) and the second was over Gerald Meerschaert (see it here). Those wins came after three back-to-back-to-back losses to Shara Magomedov, Kevin Holland and Michel Pereira.

Barriault lost a unanimous decision to Shara Bullet last July. He won a Fight of the Night bonus for that bloody contest. Before that he scored a scary KO on Bruno Silva (see it here). That was one of those KOs that makes you stop what you’re doing and start praying that the guy on the ground opens his eyes. Before that Barriault was slept, in less scary fashion, by Dustin Stoltzfus.

This has Fight of the Night written all over it. Neither of these guys back down from a fire fight nor are afraid to get hit in order to land their best shot. Oleksiejczuk has looked a little more risk adverse after his camp change, but Barriault is a steamroller and he’s probably going to plow forwards and bring that brawler out of Oleksiejzcuk.

I slightly favor Olekseijczuk, since he has the ground advantage in this fight, but I think it’s best to play the under on this one. It’s set at 1.5 and I’m fine with that.

Best bet: Under 1.5 rounds (-160)

Jean Matsumoto (+230) vs. Farid Basharat (-285)

The hard hitting Jean Matsumoto got a split decision win over Miles Johns in August. Before that he lost a split decision to Rob Font. He got the Font fight after he handed Brad Katona a three round drubbing.

Basharat remains undefeated in his career. He fought once last year, beating Chris Gutierrez by unanimous decision. That was his fourth win in UFC and followed victories over Taylor Lapilus and Da’Mon Blackshear.

This could be a really fun fight and I’m a little surprised to see the odds so long for Matsumoto. Matsumoto has been drawn into a lot of break-neck brawls in his UFC career. But he’s an accomplished wrestler and grappler, too.

Basharat is almost certainly going to want to avoid a fire fight and look to smother Matsumoto on the ground. I think he might get some takedowns here, but I also think he won’t find things totally going his way on the ground. I think Matsumoto might be able to use his defensive grappling to get himself to his feet and might force Basharat to strike more than he wants to.

I’m not very confident that this leads to an upset, but I just feel like this will be a close one that either man could win. I’m going to go for Matsumoto, but not the moneyline. The point spread is Matsumoto +3.5. I think this could go to a decision and that Matsumoto wins some rounds on the scorecards (perhaps even enough for a win).

Best bet: Jean Matsumoto +3.5 (-135)

Dustin Jacoby (-185) vs. Julius Walker (+154)

Jacoby is riding a two fight winning streak after KOing Bruno Lopes (see it here) and Vitor Petrino (see it here). Before that he was finished by Dominick Reyes (see it here). He’s currently 9-6-1 in UFC.

Walker got his first UFC win in August by taking a unanimous decision over Raffael Cerqueira (0-4 in UFC). Before that he lost his debut to Alonzo Menifield, by split decision.

Walker has great size for the division and has shown a good chin so far. He’s not that much bigger than Jacoby, though. The veteran is giving up just an inch of height and two inches of reach here.

So I don’t think Jacoby will find it hard to get to Walker’s chin. Factor in that Walker has shown just 43 percent defense on sig. strikes in his two UFC appearances and there’s reason to believe that Jacoby extends his KO streak to three fights.

Walker is going to try and wrestle his way out of this one. He’s not been terribly successful at takedowns during his short UFC stint. He found it near impossible to take Menifield down (someone he had a lot of size over), going just 1-9 on takedown attempts. He did get Cerqueira down on 6-10 attempts, but Cerqueira is one of the worst fighters signed to UFC in the past two years.

Jacoby’s takedown defense is a respectable 62 percent. It looks better when you consider how long he’s been in UFC, though, and how many guys he’s fought who knew their way around a wrestling mat. He was taken down nine times by Ion Cutelaba back in the day, but that was on 19 attempts.

I don’t think Walker is going to be able to dictate where this fight goes and that means his chin is going to be hanging out there in dangerous territory for much of the fight.

Best bet: Dustin Jacoby moneyline (-185)

UFC Vegas 113 ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds

Alex Morono (+440) vs. Danil Donchenko (-600)

Morono is badly in need of a win this weekend. He’s lost three straight. And his last fight, against Carlos Leal, was one of the more one-sided beatings we saw last year (see it here). Before that he dropped a split decision against Daniel Rodriguez, in a real gritty fight. And before that he was a distant second best to Niko Price. His last win was in 2024, over Court McGee.

Donchenko looked very fun in September, when he torched Rodrigo Sezinando on route to a first round TKO to win his season of TUF (see it here).

Donchenko is the biggest favorite on the card and I can see why. He’s a nightmare match-up for Morono, who — despite being just 35 — is looking very over the hill. He’s been very hurt by fast paced and creative strikers recently and I don’t think he can last long opposite Donchenko.

Best bet: Under 1.5 rounds (-140)

Bruna Brasil (+136) vs. Ketlen Souza (-162)

Brasil scored an underwhelming decision over Ming Shi in August, on Road to UFC (for some reason). Prior to that she lost to Cong Wang. Before that she had the win of her career, when she confidently out-boxed Molly McCann in London.

Souza was been on the wrong side of two split decisions last year. She lost to Piera Rodriguez and Angela Hill. The Rodriguez fight wasn’t that close, but the Hill fight was a bit of a robbery. Before those losses, she clubbed and subbed Yazmin Jauregui at Sphere (see it here).

I thought Brasil turned a corner with that win over McCann. However, she’s been a big disappointment since then. In the Cong fight she landed just 31 sig. strikes to Cong’s 103. She landed 31 against Shi Ming, too (who responded with just 32 of her own). Souza landed 35 sig. strikes in her three minute win over Jauregui. She landed 70 and 56 in her losses to Hill and Rodriguez.

These two are going to fight mostly on the feet and I think Souza will have the speed and power advantage. Brasil is bigger and might be able to hold Souza against the fence for some time, but I have a feeling Souza’s power strikes will be enough to cancel that out when it comes to the judges’ scorecards.

Best bet: Ketlen Souza moneyline (-162)

Said Nurmagomedov (-105) vs. Javid Basharat (-115)

Nurmagomedov has lost three of his last four bouts. He’s faced some pretty tough competition, though. In his last fight, back in July, he dropped a decision to Bryce Mitchell (who was debuting at Bantamweight). Before that he was beaten, also by decision, by tonight’s headliner: Vinicius Oliveira. He was actually a favorite in that fight, mostly because many weren’t yet wise to Lok Dog.

Nurmagomedov’s last win was a first round guillotine against Muin Gafarov (see it here). That was his fourth career guillotine win.

Everything was going so well for Basharat in 2023. He was 10-0 and had impressed on Contender Series and then won his first three proper UFC appearances (against some decent opposition). He finished that year with a no contest opposite Victor Henry, after a fight ended with a brutal groin shot to Henry. In 2024, though, things went down hill. He lost a decision to Aiemann Zahabi and was then starched by Ricky Simon (see it here).

I think Basharat is able to get off the schneid here. Despite his name, Nurmagomedov is a striking Dagestani, not a pressure wrestler. Basharat is the better wrestler in this match-up. And he’s a good striker, too. He lands 5.41 sig. strikes a minute at 53 percent accuracy. Nurmagomedov, who has an array of flashy strikes, doesn’t land much volume (3.08).

Basharat should be able to at least match Nurmagomedov in striking exchanges. But he should really power past him when it comes to the wrestling. And I think he’s going to be keen to use his wrestling, given what happened to him last time out.

Best bet: Javid Basharat moneyline (-115)

Wang Cong (-355) vs. Eduarda Moura (+280)

Cong has rescued some of her hype lately, taking comfortable unanimous decision wins over Ariane Lipski da Silva and Bruna Brasil. Before those wins she was surprised by Gabriella Fernandes, in Macau, by a big punch and then a rear naked choke (see it here). Cong was the -950 favorite for that fight, making it one of the biggest betting upsets in UFC history.

Maura is also coming off two back-to-back decision wins. Her wins were over Lauren Murphy and Veronica Hardy. Those were her first two Flyweight fights in UFC. She was forced into that division after missing weight in her previous two Strawweight bouts.

I’m still not sure how much we can trust Cong. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see her lose as a big favorite a one or two more times in her career. I don’t think Moura is going to trip her up, though.

Cong seems to take herself a little too seriously. I think that might extend to her being serious about her preparation and her fighting, too. Moura, on the other hand, has a lot of question marks over how disciplined she is as a fighter. She doesn’t come into fights in shape. The weigh-in misses are bad enough, but in the Murphy fight she almost threw that win away by gassing out. Female fighters catch a lot of flak in MMA, but their fitness is rarely questioned. So it’s rare to see a female fighter look as tired as Moura did in that last fight.

Cong is a pressure fighter, so Moura’s cardio will be tested here. The only other betting option available to me is the round total, which is 2.5. The under is tempting, but I think this likely goes over. Cong’s amazing highlight reel KO over Victoria Leonardo might have said more about Leonardo’s chin than Cong’s power.

Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-195)

Muin Gafurov (-115) vs. Jakub Wiklacz (-105)

Wiklacz chased Patchy Mix from the promotion with his split decision win over the former Bellator champion (which was close, but no robbery). That was Wiklacz’s UFC debut, having come over from KSW. He was the Bantamweight champ in that promotion, where he went 6-1. His only loss there was to Sebastian Przybysz, a man he has had an epic rivalry with. He beat Przybysz in his final KSW fight to take the 3-1-1 record in their head-to-head series.

Gafurov upset hot prospect Rinya Nakamura in his last fight. He hurt the Japanese wrestling stud early and was able to ride out a decision, as a +430 underdog. That was over a year ago, though. Before that he earned a decision over Kyung Ho Kang.

Gafurov is well rounded, but doesn’t excel at any one thing. Wiklacz is a more potent striker than Gafurov, but he was shown to be vulnerable to takedowns in that Mix fight (he was taken down five times on seven attempts). Gafurov isn’t an amazing wrestler, but he’s got baseline skills you’d expect from someone whose name ends in an v.

Gafurov’s attempts to either out strike or ground Wiklacz are going to suffer from the size disparity in this bout, though. Wiklacz has four inches of reach and he’s also three inches taller (and more thickly muscled). I think that could spell Wiklacz being able to land a lot on the outside and then not get taken down should Gafurov try and steal rounds with wrestling.

Best bet: Jakub Wiklacz moneyline (-105)

Klaudia Sygula (-142) vs. Priscila Cachoeira (+120)

Sygula scored her first UFC win last June, showing too much technique against the scrappy Irina Alekseeva. Prior to that she lost her UFC debut, back in November, 2024, via TKO to Melissa Mullins (see it here).

Cachoeira was pieced apart by Joselyne Edwards in her last fight, which was in August. That ended by first round TKO (see it here). Before that she iced Josiane Nunes with a first round uppercut KO (see it here). Those results have Zombie Girl sitting at 5-7 on her UFC career. The Nunes win was her first victory since 2022.

It’s hard to take Cachoeira seriously a lot of the time. However, her stunning KO on Nunes changed that a little bit. Though, I’m pretty confident that anyone with a modicum of defense should be able to stay out of trouble against her.

Cachoeira really welts under power. Sygula doesn’t have a lot of oomph in her striking. Though it did look much improved in her last bout, where she landed 101 sig. strikes at 55 percent accuracy.

Sygula’s ten years younger than Cachoeira and if she can replicate what she did against the free swinging Alekseeva (who went just 35-178 on her sig. strikes), she should be able to cruise to a decision here.

Best bet: Klaudia Sygula moneyline (-142)

UFC Vegas 113 Long Shots!

Here’s a couple of long shots for Saturday’s action …

Two fight parlay: Vinicius Oliveira and Rizvan Kuniev (+460)

There’s two underdogs on the main card that I really like, so I parlayed them together. I think Oliveira is being slept on. He might not be a future champ, but I think he’s good enough to put up with Bautista and get off his own offense. Kuniev is an exciting Heavyweight prospect with fast hands. I’d love to see him get the win over Almeida.

Michal Oleksiejczuk vs. Marc-Andre Barriault to end in Submission (+650)

These two aren’t going to the judges’ scorecards. The most likely outcome is that one of them ends up getting starched by a massive punch. However, I think there’s a chance of a club and sub here from either guy. Also, Oleksiejczuk has looked a little more interested in the ground game since hooking up with the Fighting Nerds.

Kyogi Horiguchi to win by first round KO/TKO/DQ (+1000)

I’m a believer. I think Horiguchi is fighting for a title this year and he might earn that on Saturday. Albazi looked terrible in his last fight. Ring rust might be to blame for that. But I hate this match-up for him. I don’t think he will be able to out wrestle Horiguchi, which means he’ll have to deal with all the former RIZIN champ’s firepower on the feet.

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