Canelo Alvarez vs. William Scull predictions, odds, full card preview: Does Scull stand a chance?
It’s not often that a full unification bout is a perceived mismatch designed to set up an even bigger fight.
That is precisely where we are with this weekend's undisputed championship clash between Saul "Canelo" AÁlvarez and William Scull.
Every major super middleweight title will be at stake in the DAZN pay-per-view headliner this Saturday from ANB Arena in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Mexico’s Álvarez (62-2-2, 39 KOs), 34, puts his unified WBA, WBC and WBO titles on the line, while Scull risks the IBF belt that belonged to the Mexican superstar until he was forced to relinquish last summer.
Scull (23-0, 9 KOs) — a Cuban export based in Berlin, Germany — is four years younger than the 34-year-old Álvarez, four inches taller and boasts a three-inch reach advantage.
Every other significant edge belongs to Álvarez, Uncrowned’s No. 7 pound-for-pound fighter — hence the massive -3000 betting odds in his favor, per BetMGM.
A storyline that has emerged during the buildup is Álvarez’s performance the last time he fought a top-level Cuban boxer. It came nearly 11 years ago, when he barely edged Erislandy Lara in a July meeting just above the super welterweight limit.
Álvarez struggled in the first half but made enough key adjustments over the back six rounds to eke out a split decision victory. He has exponentially grown as a fighter since — figuratively and literally. Álvarez has claimed major title status in four different weight divisions, while also enjoying a lengthy stay as the sport’s best pound-for-pound fighter.
His incredible eight-and-a-half-year run between defeats to Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Dmitry Bivol has come at the sport’s highest level.
Álvarez’s résumé runs so deep that a win over Scull will barely rate in his list of Hall of Fame achievements.
Scull is among the world’s best super middleweights, though his career-best win to date came under dubious circumstances. He was considered fortunate by some to have defeated Vladimir Shishkin in their vacant IBF super middleweight title fight between unbeaten contenders this past October. Others were simply turned off by the negative clash of styles from the meeting in Falkansee, Germany.
The fact that Scull has the belt that was removed from Álvarez’s possession is the only reason that he is here this weekend.
Álvarezs quest to become a two-time fully unified champion is in part due to history. The other part is a super fight on the horizon with Terence Crawford (41-0, 31 KOs), Uncrowned’s pound-for-pound No. 2, who will have the chance to claim undisputed status in a third weight class.
Scull boasts the type of style that can cause problems for most super middleweights. He is a largely defense-first, low-risk boxer with good footwork and sense of range. Historically, that mixture has created issues for Álvarez, though not an insurmountable obstacle.
Scull's lack of firepower, however, means he will have to find other ways to earn Álvarez’s respect.
Álvarez has not scored a stoppage since his 2021 Fighter of the Year win, where all three of his victories that campaign — Avni Yildirim, Billy Joe Saunders and Caleb Plant — ended inside the distance. He’s since gone to the cards in his past six contests, though he’s scored at least one knockdown in each of his past four starts.
Given the chance to control the action and ring space early, Álvarez could add to his knockout total. The sense here, however, is that Scull’s initial desire to win gives way to survival mode down the stretch.
Prediction: Alvarez by decision.
Badou Jack (+130) vs. Noel Mikaelian (-150): WBC cruiserweight title
The evening’s second title fight and co-feature pits the last two claimants to the WBC cruiserweight belt, both of whom were relieved of their title status outside the ring.
Neither Jack (28-3-3, 17 KOs) nor Mikaelian (27-2, 12 KOs) have fought since separate WBC title-winning knockouts over Ilunga "Junior" Makabu in 2023. Both were eventually stripped of the belt and downgraded to "Champion in Recess" for failure to honor mandatory title defense obligations.
The most recent ruling placed Mikaelian in that dubious status after he failed to face top contender Ryan Rozicki. Jack — a 2008 Olympian for Sweden, who has won titles in three weight divisions — saw his earlier title reign restored, though with the caveat that he honor the overdue mandatory.
Jack-Rozicki was the original matchup slated for this card. Rozicki was forced to withdraw after he suffered a torn biceps during training camp. It opened the door for Mikaelian to return to the ring and fight for what he continues to believe was wrongly removed from his possession.
There is a strong argument to be made that the replacement fight is a greater risk than the original for Jack, 41, who fights for the first time in more than 26 months. Mikaelian, 34, has been out of the ring since November 2023, however he is much closer to his prime and has won five in a row since a controversial November 2018 points loss to Mairis Brieidis.
Jack agreed to the fight as a means to satisfy a mandatory and move forward with desired unification bouts against RING/IBF champ Jai Opetaia and WBA/WBO titlist Gilberto "Zurdo" Ramriez. This could be the night, however, where he realizes that he is already on borrowed time.
Prediction: Mikaelian by decision.
Jaime Munguia (-1000) vs. Bruno Surace (+600)
It says something about the magnitude of Surace’s massive upset win over Munguia this past December when the sportsbooks still have him as a sizable underdog for the sequel.
The lopsided odds in Munguia’s favor are reflective of their first fight prior to the ending. Tijuana’s Munguia (44-2, 35 KOs) was winning — until he wasn’t — in a hand-picked hometown showcase gone horribly awry.
Surace (26-0-2, 5 KOs) entered the road trip with just four knockouts to his name through 27 pro fights. The visiting Frenchman increased that total by 20% when an overhand right floored Munguia, a -2500 favorite that evening, to produce the 10-count and a truly shocking outcome.
Munguia has since enlisted the services of Eddy Reynoso. The two-time Trainer of the Year is best known as the career-long trainer for "Canelo," who outpointed Munguia in their undisputed championship between Mexican stars in May 2024 in Las Vegas.
A win in December would've placed Munguia on course for a big fight in 2025, even if against someone other than Álvarez. For now, the former WBO junior middleweight titlist can settle for the big payback.
Prediction: Munguia by knockout.
Martin Bakole (-350) vs. Efe Ajagba (+300)
Boxing fans can only hope that the battle of African heavyweights can match the energy that came in their verbal exchange during Thursday’s final pre-fight press conference.
Bakole (21-2, 16 KOs) was the perceived boogeyman all the way through the initial mention of this matchup. The Congolese slugger — now based in Scotland — showed no fear stepping in on two days’ notice to replace an ill IBF heavyweight titlist Daniel Dubois (22-2, 21 KOs) against Joseph Parker (36-3, 25 KOs) on Feb. 22 at this very arena.
The risk did not pay off by any stretch. A grossly unprepared Bakole was battered in a second-round knockout defeat to end a 10-fight win streak that spanned more than six years.
It’s unfair to measure the once-streaking Bakole by a performance in a fight he took on two days’ notice. Still, it was enough to cost this fight its previously enjoyed status as a final IBF title eliminator.
That said, Bakole was considered among the best heavyweights in the world after his dismantling of unbeaten Jared Anderson this past August in Los Angeles, California.
That single feat is superior to any on the résumé of Ajagba, a 2016 Olympian for Nigeria who is riding a five-fight win streak. Still, it appears that the 31-year-old, lean 6-foot-6 contender is back on the career upswing since a points loss to Frank Sanchez in their October 2019 battle of unbeaten heavyweights.
Even with the early knockout loss to Parker, the generally resilient Bakole is the more active of the two. Ajagba has not fought since a points win over Guido Vianello in April 2024 in Corpus Christi, Texas. Still, his cleaner living and more disciplined style figures to cause fits for the naturally aggressive Bakole, who lives and dies (figuratively) by his relentless nature.
Despite threats to the contrary, look for Ajagba to remain composed and rely on his skills — and chin, if it comes to that — to prevail.
Prediction: Ajagba by decision
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