UFC Vegas 111 goes down this weekend (Sat., Nov. 8, 2025) at UFC APEX in Las Vegas, NV. The main event is the underwhelming Welterweight match-up of Gabriel Bonfim vs. Randy Brown. The rest of the event, which seems designed to wind down the ESPN contract more than anything else, isn’t much better. In fact, this might be the worst card (as far as name value goes) ever!

At least the poster looks cool.

The co-main is Matt Schnell vs. Joseph Morales. Yep.

Rounding out ESPN+’s main card on Saturday is Muslim Salikhov vs. Uros Medic, Chris Padilla vs. Ismael Bonfim, Ricky Simon vs. Raoni Barcelos and Christian Leroy Duncan vs. Marco Tulio.

UFC Vegas 111’s “Prelims” are headlined by Hyder Amil vs. Jamall Emmers. Also on the undercard is Tecia Pennington vs. Denise Gomes, Mayra Bueno Silva vs. Jacqueline Cavalcanti and Miles Johns vs. Daniel Marcos.

As always, there’s lots to bet on this card and we’ve got odds for all the fights below:

UFC Vegas 111 Main Card Money Line Odds

Gabriel Bonfim (-185) vs. Randy Brown (+154)

Bonfim won in the co-main event of UFC Nashville in July, taking a split decision over Stephen Thompson. Almost everyone scored that for Thompson, though. Prior to that he choked Khaos Williams to sleep (see it here). He’s now 5-1 in UFC (18-1 overall) with his only loss being that shock upset to Nicolas Dalby in 2023. He was TKO’d by knees in that fight despite being a massive -650 favorite (see it here).

Brown beat Dalby in his last fight, finishing him with a right hook (see it here). Before that he lost a split decision over Dirty Boxing’s Bryan Battle. Brown is 14-6 in UFC, with some of his losses coming to very respectable opponents (Jack Della Maddalena, Belal Muhammad, Vicente Luque).

The thing that jumps off the tale of the tape the most between these two is the reach. Brown has a long 78 inch reach, versus Bonfim’s somewhat short 72 inches. If we’re just striking here, Brown should win. And not just because of the reach, but because he’s the better striker.

Because of that I think Bonfim is going to be very willing to take this down to the ground. The match-up should motivate him to do this. But the fact this is a big opportunity in his first main event and that he should have lost to Thompson, in what was just a kickboxing match, should also tell him that he needs to fight to his strengths.

He gets 4.02 takedowns per 15 minutes. That’s a very high return. And his accuracy at 55% is very good. His submissions per 15 mins is also way above average at 1.6.

So the big question is, and it’s a pretty common one, will the better striker be able to stay on his feet?

Brown has a 73% takedown defense. That’s very good, on paper.

Brown’s takedown defense, in practice, has not been that good lately. Battle took him down twice on five attempts. Battle had a career takedown accuracy of just 17%. Elizeu Zaleskidos Santos got him down four times on seven attempts. Capoeira has a career 20% takedown accuracy. Brown’s high takedown defense, on paper, is thanks to his success against names like Wellington Turman and Brian Camozzi.

I think Bonfim’s takedowns will get the job done here and I don’t think Brown’s submission defense is capable of stopping Bonfim. Brown has been submitted twice in UFC, by Della Maddalena and Mike Graves.

With the odds relatively close, picking Bonfim straight up makes sense if you think the fight will play out like I do.

The round total for this one is 2.5. That’s quite low for a five rounder. The over is -120 and the under is -110.

If I’m confident in Bonfim getting a tap out, there’s lots of value bets for me. Bonfim by submission is +165, which is quite nice. Bonfim to win by Submission or Decision at -105 is a good option, too, if I want to play it safer.

I think Brown’s best path to winning is a KO/TKO. You can get that at +330. I don’t think this is impossible, by any means, but I do think Bonfim is good enough to avoid that power and force this into a ground battle.

For my best bet, I’m going to play it safe and go for Bonfim on the moneyline. I like him winning by submission, but I also like the return on -185.

Best bet: Gabriel Bonfim moneyline (-185)

Matt Schnell (+260) vs. Joseph Morales (-325)

Schnell came back from retirement this year and earned a decision over Jimmy Flick. He had decided to hang up the gloves after a ninja choke loss to Cody Durden last year (see it here). In 2024 he also suffered a TKO loss to Steve Erceg. He’s lost by T/KO five times in his UFC career.

Morales outfoxed hyped prospect Alibi Idiris and finished him with a triangle choke in August to win TUF’s latest Flyweight tournament. That was his first UFC appearance since being cut by the promotion in 2018 (after he went 1-2).

It’s hard to bet on Schnell given both his recent ‘retirement’ and just how often he’s been beat up in UFC. His reputation has been dining out on that war he had with Sumudaerji for a while, but he was getting destroyed in that fight before he managed to turn the tables. He’s had a few fights which have gone like that minus the comeback.

Who knows how good Morales is, but he certainly looked very well rounded in that Idiris fight. And Vegas likes him a lot over the veteran here.

For value’s sake, I’ll fade Schnell (hard) and take Morales minus the points.

Best bet: Joseph Morales -7.5 (-135)

Muslim Salikhov (+142) vs. Uros Medic (-170)

Salikhov, who turned 41 this summer, is riding high after walk-off KOs over Carlos Leal and SongKenan. He stopped Leal with a beautiful counter (see it here) and wiped out Song with a spinning wheel kick (see it here). Before that he earned a split decision over Santiago Ponzinibbio. His last loss came before that, when he was KO’d by tonight’s headliner Randy Brown.

Medic got back in the win column in August by KOing Gilbert Urbina (see it here). That came after he was KO’d, in 30 seconds, by Punahele Soriano. Medic also has a recent KO win over Tim Means (see it here).

I really doubted Salikhov in that Leal fight. I’m very tempted to doubt him again, but something tells me to stop betting against the King of Kung Fu.,

On paper Medic seems like a bad match-up for him. He’s a tall southpaw with a wicked sig. strike accuracy (60%). But I’m just too scared to go against the veteran and his very fun sanda striking.

Vegas is really confident there’s a KO in this fight. The round total is 1.5 and fight to end by KO/TKO/DQ is an incredibly short -550. Fight to end in the 1st 60 seconds of Round 1 is also just +600. It’s usually +1000.

It’s very tempting to go against the grain and pick some big value bets regarding this fight going long or to a decision (+550 that this ends in a unanimous decision).

I think the MMA Gods have a KO prescribed for this fight, though. I’m go with them and also go with Salikhov to keep his run going. Not for any sensible reason, though.

Best bet: Muslim Salikhov to win by KO/TKO/DQ (+200)

Chris Padilla (+170) vs. Ismael Bonfim (-205)

Padilla gutted out a close decision over Jai Herbert in March, though there were plenty who scored that one for Herbert. Before that he cracked Rongzhu with an elbow to force a TKO via doctor stoppage. And before that he won his UFC debut with a rear naked choke over James Llontop (as a +340 underdog).

Bonfim was stopped by Nazim Sadykhov last time out, after a question mark kick damaged his eye. His previous fight to that was almost a year prior, a unanimous decision over Vinc Pichel. Bonfim’s best win remains his epic flying knee KO over Terrance McKinney in 2023 (see it here).

Bonfim is a chaotic striker capable of highs and lows. Padilla is a lot more measured and patient. Padilla’s style has been pretty successful lately. I think he’s probably able to avoid Bonfim’s big swings and piece together a decent argument for a decision.

Padilla also has good grappling. Bonfim’s submission defense isn’t that great. All four of his pro losses are submissions, though two of those came against Benoit Saint-Denis and Renato Moicano.

I like Padilla in this fight, but I’m not confident enough in him to go for his moneyline. I can get him +3.5 points at -135. I’m not sold on the point spread, though. If he loses this fight, it’s likely by a stoppage.

The round total is 2.5 with the over at -135 and the under at +105. I think this fight goes over, but I’d like a little more protection with that. I bet on this one making it to a third round.

Best bet: Fight to Start Round 3 – Yes (-175)

Ricky Simon (-175) vs. Raoni Barcelos (+145)

Simon bested Cameron Smotherman for a dominant decision victory in June. Before that he scored a big upset by KOing Javid Basharat (see that here). That was Basharat’s first ever loss. The win over Bahsarat (as a +200 underdog) broke a three fight losing streak to Simon. Those losses were all to top guys, though (Vinicius Oliveira, Mario Bautista and Song Yadong).

Barcelos is on a three fight winning streak. Last time out he handled a very shop worn looking Cody Garbrandt for a decision win. Before that he scored the upset of the year by dominating Payton Talbott (as a +710 underdog). His streak started with a submission over Cristian Quinonez.

I think Simon deserves to be a bigger favorite in this fight. I think his wrestling is a lot better than Barcelos’ and that, when it comes to striking, he’s shown that he needs to be respected in that department, too.

Barcelos has good takedown defense, but Simon is like Merab Dvalishvili in that he doesn’t need to complete takedowns to win rounds. He can win rounds by just spamming attempts and forcing an opponent to spend all their time on defense.

I think this fight will see a lot of that. Barcelos likely won’t get taken all the way down much or flattened out. He’s not a guy who accepts being on his back. But I also don’t think he will be able to keep Simon off him long enough to implement any meaningful offense of his own.

And I think that’s especially true now that we are seeing Simon being able to win more striking exchanges. He dominated Smotherman despite going just 3-10 on takedowns. He won that fight because he was able to land 34 sig. strikes to Smotherman’s 29. That’s not a massive difference, but Simon landed 45% of his sig. strikes compared to Smotherman landing just 29 percent. Simon also landed 50 total strikes to Smotherman’s 33.

This increased striking activity has me pretty confident in Simon heading into this one.

Best bet: Ricky Simon moneyline (-175)

Christian Leroy Duncan (+154) vs. Marco Tulio (-185)

Duncan looked much improved when he picked apart and finished Eryk Anders in August (see it here). That spinning back elbow finish earned him a Performance of the Night bonus. Before that he won a boring decision over Andrey Pulyaev.

There’s been nothing boring about Tulio. He’s won both his UFC fights with strikes. Last time out he iced Tresean Gore with a straight right (see it here) and before that he pulverized Ihor Potieria. The 31 year-old is now 14-1 with 10 T/KOs.

This is definitely one of the better fights on the card, especially if Duncan performs like he did last time out.

Tulio has been a monster thus far in his UFC career. Though, there’s lots of Middleweights who can look good when fighting Potieria.

In retrospect, Tulio’s Contender Series win over Yousri Belgarouiis looking like one of the best wins on his record. He took a decision over the giant Belgaroui, outlanding him 48 to 33 on sig. strikes with a sprinkling of takedowns. We just saw Belgaroui dismantle Azamat Bekoev, someone I was very high on.

This is still Tulio’s biggest test, though.

I don’t think we can say the same about this fight for Duncan. He’s been in there with Robo Cop. He was well beaten by Rodrigues, but I think Rodrigues is a cut above Tulio.

I’m looking at the round total for this one, to avoid having to pick a winner. It’s set at 2.5. The over is -130 and the under is 2.5.

I’m not super confident in there being a finish in this fight, since both guys have shown to be very durable (especially Duncan in that Rodrigues fight). If the finish comes it could come late (as has been the case in a few of their fights).

Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-130)

UFC Vegas 111 ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds

Hyder Amil (-148) vs. Jamall Emmers (+124)

Amil dropped to 3-1 in UFC after Jose Delgado smashed him in under 30 seconds back in June. Before that Amil took a split decision over William Gomis and beat Jeong Yeong Lee with a Tekken combo (see it here).

Emmers was preparing for the young wrestler Austin Bashi before Bashi pulled out due to injury. He’s coming off a TKO win over Gabriel Miranda (see it here) and a TKO loss to Nate Landwehr.

The big question in this fight is whether Amil has learned his lesson. Does he now know that he can’t just storm UFC level opponents with his chin up and expect to knock them out before he gets taken out? If he hasn’t learned this, then I think he’s in trouble.

Emmers has a four inch reach advantage on him (same as Delgado had). Emmers’ striking looked really good in the last fight, albeit against a non-striker.

If Amil brings him a brawl, I don’t think Emmers will be intimidated. And his striking is the cleaner of the two.

The round total on this one is 2.5. I think that’s high. The under is -195. I think this fight will go under, but I also think Emmers might be the one landing that early stoppage.

Best bet: Jamall Emmers moneyline (+124)

Tecia Pennington (+154) vs. Denise Gomes (-185)

I think this should be on the main card.

Pennington is coming off wins over Luana Pinheiro and Carla Esparza, both by decision. Those were her tenth and eleventh wins in the promotion.

Gomes is on a three fight winning streak. She might be the hardest hitter in Strawweight now that Zhang Weili has left the division. She obliterated Elise Reed in her last fight. Before that she took decisions over Karolina Kowalkiewicz and Eduarda Moura. She also has stoppage finishes over Yazmin Jauregui and Bruna Brasil.

I think this is a really tough fight for Pennington. She’s ten years older than Gomes and giving up three inches of reach. I think Gomes speed and power advantage might lead to Gomes finding a lot of success on the feet.

Of the two, Gomes is also the more likely fighter to take this to the ground.

The things Pennington has working in her favor in this bout are her experience and her intelligence. She’s a long standing veteran because she’s been able to minimize risk in her fights and eek out close decisions. She’s capable of doing it here, but I think it’s getting harder with age and this opponent is especially dangerous.

Gomes is a protege of Jessica Andrade, so Fight IQ might not be something she receives great tutelage in. I think there is potential for Pennington to out smart her some way in this fight.

If Pennington were five years younger I think she would fight circles around Gomes, but that’s not the fight we have here.

I do believe in Gomes’ striking. She’s fought enough good people to prove it’s not a fluke, with either her accuracy or her power. Pennington has never been stopped and I don’t think she gets stopped here. But I think that power will make a difference and it will help slow Pennington down and also make her shy about racking up volume herself.

Best bet: Denise Gomes moneyline (-185)

Daniel Marcos (-185) vs. Miles Johns (+154)

Marcos suffered his first pro loss in his last fight, dropping a unanimous decision to Montel Jackson. Before that he had taken decisions over Adrian Yanez and John Castaneda.

Johns lost a close split decision to Jean Matsumoto in his last fight. Before that he lost to Felipe Lima. Fights with those impressive Brazilian prospects came after wins over veterans Douglas Silva de Andrade and Cody Gibson.

I think this is going to be a lot like the Johns vs. Matsumoto fight, where Johns will lose the striking volume match and will need to rack up takedowns and control time to try and balance that out.

Against Matsumoto he landed five of eight takedowns, which is better than he usually does. And he was able to convert that to 3:12 minutes of control time. He also outstruck Matsumoto in the first round on sig. strikes (22 to 16). In the second round he lost the sig. striking battle by 1 and then, in the third, Matsumoto outscored him 44 to 27. Despite all the success with these simple numbers, Johns was not able to convince two of the three judges that he won a fight.

I think he’s going to struggle to replicate those numbers against Marcos and I think that could mean he loses by a wider decision here.

Marcos has much better takedown defense than Matsumoto. That really spells trouble for Johns. If he can’t respond to striking volume with control time, then he’s just going to get picked apart. Marcos is the busier striker and he has above average accuracy on his sig. strikes at 53% (Johns has 44%).

I think this is going to be a mostly kickboxing match, with Marcos using the fence to stuff takedowns and then being able to turn Johns into the mesh and suck up control time of his own.

Best bet: Daniel Marcos moneyline (-185)

Jackson McVey vs. Donte Johnson

McVey was jerked around before his UFC debut in July. He signed with the promotion on short notice to fight Sedriques Dumas in June, but Dumas’ ankle monitor scuppered that deal. McVey was then set up with Christopher Ewert, who UFC pulled out of a Contender Series bout. Ewert then failed to make weight and forced the fight to be cancelled. McVey was then slotted in as a short notice opponent for Brunno Ferreira. Ferreira then submitted him with ease.

McVey was supposed to fight Robert Valentin at this event, but he had to pull out. McVey gets to stay on the card, though… against Johnson, who looked like a total stud when he beat down Dumas in his pro debut last week (see it here). That was Johnson’s Middleweight debut. Prior to that he had been wrecking shop on the regional scene as a Heavyweight and occasional Light Heavyweight.

This bout came together yesterday, so there’s no odds on it yet. But I like what I saw from Johnson. He has great power and seems to know enough wrestling to get by. More so, though, I was impressed with his attitude. He looked like he’d fought in the Octagon five times already and he showed great composure — telling his corner to calm down and let him work. If he was with a bigger camp that would concern me, but at in this instance I think it showed a lot of poise and character.

Best bet: Donte Johnson moneyline

Mayra Bueno Silva (+210) vs. Jacqueline Cavalcanti (-258)

Bueno Silva has lost her lost three fights. The most recent was a decision against Jasmine Jasudavicius, where she was a distant second best. Before that she was appropriately stopped due to a cut and before that she lost a snorefest against Raquel Pennington for the vacant Bantamweight title.

Cavalcanti is trending in the opposite direction of Bueno Silva. She’s won all of her four UFC assignments, all by decision. Last time out she retired Julia Avila.

I’m surprised to see Bueno Silva as the underdog in this match-up. I thought it would be at least a pick ‘em. Cavalcanti has looked very smooth and professional, thus far, but this is a big step up for her.

She’s made a living off fighting off the back foot and beating opponents up with her countering. Bueno Silva loves to run forwards, but she does so with a lot more power than some of the girls Cavalcanti has seen to date. Bueno Silva also has a very dangerous grappling game, also.

I’m torn over whether Cavalcanti will continue to look impressive against an opponent like this. So far she’s managed to have 70% defense on significant strikes through four fights. You need five fights to get on the stat leader boards. Right now the stat leader in sig. striking defense is Aiemann Zahabi at 69.2%. Manon Fiorot leads the women with a 66.9% defense.

Cavalcanti isn’t all defense, though. She’s not slipping punches and circling away to maintain that high number. She’s slipping and ripping. She lands 5.73 sig. strikes a minute, two more than Bueno Silva.

If she can replicate those numbers against higher levels of competition, then she’s a title challenger (especially if she can also maintain her 84% takedown defense).

This is her first test to see if she can do that. A win or a loss to Bueno Silva is going to tell us a lot about her ceiling.

I think she might squeak by Bueno Silva here. She has some metrics working in her favor. She’s two inches taller and has a four inch reach advantage. She’s also six years younger.

I don’t like the odds I’m getting on her, but I’ll go for the favorite.

Best bet: Jacqueline Cavalcanti moneyline (-258)

Josh Hokit (-395) vs. Max Gimenis (+310)

Heavyweight Colby Covington is 6-0 after passing his Contender Series audition with a second round TKO in August. He then got on the mic and did his best to be controversial and memorable.

Gimenis is a rare UFC signing who has not come through either Contender Series or TUF. He’s a multiple time BJJ world champ who is 6-1 in pro MMA.

Hokit packs a punch, but so does Gimenis (most his regional wins have been by strikes). I’ll go with the underdog here. Unlike Carlos Buchecha, Gimenis’ game won’t fall apart if he can’t get a takedown.

Best bet: Max Gimenis moneyline (+310)

UFC Vegas 111 Long Shots!

Here’s a couple of long shots for Saturday’s action …

Gabriel Bonfim to win by Submission in Round 2 (+700)

I was too chicken to take a prop bet for my best bets, but I think there’s a great chance that Bonfim gets a submission on Saturday. I can see him trying his luck on the feet in round two and noticing how hard it is to strike with Brown, before realizing he needs to focus on grappling. Once he does that, I think there’s a good chance he gets a tap out.

Muslim Salikhov to win by Unanimous Decision (+1200)

I couldn’t believe these odds on either man winning a decision. The MMA Gods keep punishing me for betting against Muslim Salikhov. Maybe they will reward me if I think he won’t just get a sparkling KO win, but also perhaps a dominating decision.

Matt Schnell vs. Vince Morales – Fight to End in the 1st 60 seconds of Round 1 (+1100)

I think Matt Schnell owes it to himself to stay away from the sport. Morales isn’t a world beater, but I think there’s a chance he gets a quick win over Schnell (who has already had both feet out the door on his pro career).

LIVE! Watch UFC Vegas 111 On ESPN+ Here!

SIN CITY FISTICUFFS! Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns to action on Sat., Nov. 8, 2025, with an exciting main event set to headline UFC Vegas 111 from inside UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada. In UFC Vegas 111’s main event, Welterweight contenders Gabriel Bonfim vs. Randy Brown clash in a high-stakes, five-round bout. UFC Vegas 111’s co-main event features a Flyweight showdown between Matt Schnell vs. Joseph Morales. UFC Vegas 111 will also showcase a Welterweight showdown pitting Muslim Salikhov vs. Uros Medic, a 155-pound collision featuring Chris Padilla vs. Ismael Bonfim, and much more! UFC Vegas 111’s start time is scheduled for 4 p.m. ET (“Prelims” undercard), and 7 p.m. ET (main card).

Don’t miss a single second of face punching action!

Where to Buy:

• Check price at STREAM UFC Vegas 111

Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Vegas 111 fight card, starting with the ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 4 p.m. ET, before the main card start time at 7 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

To checkout the latest and greatest UFC Vegas 111: “Bonfim vs. Brown” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.

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