This weekend, the main event of UFC 315 will determine not only who leaves Montreal as welterweight champion, but also what the next title fight will be in the division. That is not unusual. Yet Saturday’s headline bout will also influence the next lightweight title fight, causing a ripple effect that may even trickle to the heavyweight division.

This piece was originally written more speculatively, albeit based on a decent helping of logic, until UFC president Dana White confirmed on Thursday what we had planned to lay out below.

Let’s start with the most direct consequence of Belal Muhammad’s title defence against Jack Della Maddalena. If Muhammad wins, a rescheduled bout with Shavkat Rakhmonov looks likely, after the pair’s planned clash in December collapsed on short notice when Muhammad sustained a bone infection. In fact, the UFC already tried to reorganise the fight for this spring, only for Rakhmonov to suffer his own injury issues, thus “JDM” was parachuted in as Muhammad’s new challenger.

If Muhammad loses, however, the door opens for lightweight champion Islam Makhachev to climb up a division and challenge Della Maddalena. Makhachev has been imperious at lightweight and made clear his desire to challenge for welterweight gold one day, yet he and his coach Khabib Nurmagomedov (a childhood friend of Makhachev, and the consensus greatest 155lb fighter in UFC history) have said they will not go up against Muhammad, who previously trained with them.

Yet if Muhammad loses on Saturday, this is a moot point. White confirmed the UFC, in such an instance, will allow Makhachev a welterweight title shot, though with the promotion’s alleged distaste for double-champions right now (as such fighters can pause the title picture in two divisions), the Russian will surely have to vacate his 155lb belt.

That would mean Ilia Topuria, who just vacated the featherweight title with the aim of challenging for the lightweight strap, would be without an opponent… if not for Charles Oliveira. The former lightweight champ has traded barbs with Topuria online, and a match-up between the pair for the vacant 155lb title will be made if Makhachev moves up to welterweight. That was another part of White’s revelation on Thursday.

So, a JDM win on Saturday would lead to the following bouts: Della Maddalena vs Makhachev for the welterweight title, and Topuria vs Oliveira for the vacant lightweight belt.

If Muhammad retains, however, he is likely to face Rakhmonov at last, with Makhachev staying at lightweight to defend his gold against Topuria – in one of the best match-ups of the year, a clash between two of the pound-for-pound best fighters in MMA.

Topuria had already claimed he would fight at UFC 317 on 28 June – one of the UFC’s biggest events of 2025, on International Fight Week – and White confirmed as much on Thursday. Whomever he faces, that bout will surely headline the event.

What, then, does this mean for one of the UFC’s other marquee matches this year, a much-desired heavyweight unification bout between Tom Aspinall and Jon Jones?

That contest is a perfect fit for International Fight Week, but with the UFC currently under fire for the weakness of its fight cards compared to past offerings, would the promotion double up and put Jones vs Aspinall and Topuria vs Makhachev/Oliveira on UFC 317? That would help create one of the strongest cards in recent memory, with Jones vs Aspinall sure to headline in that circumstance, yet the UFC might be better off spreading these bouts across multiple pay-per-views.

The issue is that the UFC 318 main event in late July is already set: Dustin Poirier’s retirement fight, as he faces old rival and ‘Baddest Motherf*****’ champion Max Holloway for the third time. As such, Jones vs Aspinall might not take place before UFC 319 in August, 13 months after Aspinall last fought.

Another factor in this dynamic is Dricus Du Plessis’s claim this week that he has agreed to “two dates” for a middleweight title defence against Khamzat Chimaev. That fight, too, is one of the most appealing in 2025 for UFC fans, and it could well be that the dates to which Du Plessis is referring correspond to UFC 317 and UFC 319.

This again raises the question of what the UFC does in terms of stacking cards or spreading out high-profile match-ups. Does the company place Du Plessis vs Chimaev on the same card as Topuria vs Makhachev/Oliveira? Or does it push back Jones vs Aspinall even further?

The UFC may have little choice but to double up on one card, given September’s UFC 320 is set to take place on Mexican Independence weekend and depend on bouts involving Mexican fighters.

Of course, the UFC may have other ideas to which fans and media are none the wiser, and injuries can quickly disrupt the best-laid plans of mice and men. Still, the knock-on effect of UFC 315 will be intriguing; it should determine the biggest fights of 2025.

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